Treasury yields have hovered in the mid-5% range in recent months, reaching levels not seen in nearly 20 years. At current levels, it’s natural for some older investors to consider moving most or all of their money into these assets rather than leaving themselves vulnerable to stock market risks during these turbulent times.
Say, for example, that Sam is 68 and retired. He’s lived through the stagnation of the 1970s, Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com crash in the early 2000s, the 2008 financial crisis and the global pandemic. He’s tired of the volatility, especially now that he’s out of the workforce, and he’s seriously considering putting all his money into 30-year bonds.
But is this really a good idea, or should Sam think twice before making such a drastic move?
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Sam’s plan has more risks than he thinks
While it may seem tempting to give up on equities and stick to a bond-only portfolio, most financial experts advise against that, even with yields so high right now.
“Yes, we are at a high mark for interest rates on Treasury yields, but I would never suggest that you put all your assets in one type of investment,” Domenick D’Andrea, a financial advisor and co-founder of DanDarah Wealth Management, told Moneywise.
D’Andrea explained that falling market interest rates could affect the income Sam could earn from reinvesting maturing bonds or purchasing new bonds at lower yields. Experts also point out that bonds are not necessarily completely risk-free.
“Bonds are great. They offer predictable income, less volatility, and high yields (at least right now), but an all-bond portfolio contains hidden risks,” said Michael Schramm, a CFA and founder of Emotional Finance.
Schramm explained that Sam may need his money for decades yet. “If you only own bonds, your portfolio’s average return will likely be lower than with a mix of stocks and bonds, which could cause you to outlive your nest egg.”
Longevity risk and interest rate risk are two major issues that should make Sam rethink his plan, but he also needs to consider inflation risk, since his fixed payments could be worth less over time as prices rise. Reinvestment risk should also be on his radar, as Sam may have to reinvest at lower prevailing yields when his bonds mature.
“At 68, you could need your money for 20 to 30 more years. That’s why retirees with less room for risk still want to own some stocks so their money grows enough to last,” Schramm said.
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What should Sam do instead?
Rather than dumping his stocks, Sam should create a customized investment plan that aims to maximize potential returns while limiting risk to a reasonable level.
“I would investigate a diversified strategy, especially in retirement,” D’Andrea said. You can have some of your assets in Treasuries, but you should also have some in stocks or equities to help protect yourself in different markets.” This approach should expose Sam to an appropriate level of risk that balances his future concerns with the need to earn reasonable returns.
“Ironically, one of the biggest mistakes people make when approaching and during retirement is becoming overly risk-averse,” Robert R. Johnson, professor of finance at Heider College of Business at Creighton University, told Moneywise.
Johnson explained that some de-risking is critical to deal with sequence-of-returns risk. Otherwise, a major downturn right when you need to start withdrawing could lock in losses and make it hard for your portfolio to last.
However, you can’t go too far. “The late golf instructor Harvey Penick once said, ‘Golf tips are like Aspirin: One may do you good, but if you swallow the whole bottle you’ll be lucky to survive.’” said Johnson. “To paraphrase Penick, a little de-risking will do you good, but if you completely derisk your portfolio, you’ll be lucky to survive. Retirees should maintain a healthy allocation to stocks both as they approach retirement and as they live out their golden years in retirement.”
Schramm recommends a target date fund to help you get the right mix. Or, if you plan to invest independently, aim to put about 40% of your portfolio in equities, where it can hopefully grow and have a chance of lasting throughout your retirement years.
“It rarely pays off to chase what’s hot, whether that’s a stock sector or Treasury bonds with high yields,” Schramm said. “Instead, follow time-tested rules of thumb.”
The most important of those time-tested rules: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
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Christy Bieber is a US based personal finance and legal writer who has 15 years of experience. She has written for many publications including Forbes, Kilplinger, CNN, WSJ, Credit Karma, Insurify and more.
