Investors expect SpaceX to slide to $100 per share which suggests zero AI business value

Company shares have more room to fall, according to Morgan Stanley. Another bundle of publicly tradable shares from insiders newly allowed to sell will hit financial markets shortly after SpaceX’s first earnings report in early August, which Morgan Stanley said could depress SpaceX stock prices even further to $100 per share. At that point, investors will be appraising SpaceX’s AI business as zero or negative, according to an analyst.

“Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a client note, per Bloomberg. “Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business.”

The steep and rapid descent in SpaceX’s stock price prompted its founder Elon Musk to make a self-deprecating quip about briefly becoming the world’s first trillionaire last month during the initial IPO bonanza. Tesla, another Musk-owned company, has also seen share prices fall by just over 27% since July 1.

“(Former) Trillionaire,” he wrote in an X post.

SpaceX’s recent headaches

On Friday, SpaceX successfully proceeded with the 13th test flight of its 400-foot-tall Starship rocket from its Starbase site in Texas, the first since the company’s IPO. Starship is still in the developmental stages with two aborted takeoff attempts leading up to last week’s test launch that overcame earlier problems with the rocket’s engines.

Musk has placed the reusable rocket program at the crux of the company’s ambition to usher in an era of frequent commercial space travel and the accelerated expansion of Starlink internet service. However, its stock price has sharply dropped due to investors newly limiting their exposure to AI, which has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization.

“SpaceX is suffering the same fate as so many major IPOs before it: a euphoric debut, unrealistic expectations, and a painful reality check,” Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, said in an X post on Sunday.

Analysts on SpaceX: Buy anyway

That doesn’t mean that analysts like Jonas at Morgan Stanley are keeping SpaceX at arm’s length. Many argue that SpaceX remains an alluring investment opportunity in its current trajectory.

“SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI,” Jonas said in the client note. “We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point.”

SpaceX will issue its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company on Aug. 4. Wall Street analysts have landed on a consensus price target of about $237 per share, or a little over double current trading prices. JPMorgan, Raymond James and Evercore ISI have all held their “buy” ratings this month.