'The whole structure needs to tumble': Black Swan author Nassim Taleb warns a 2008-style crash might be coming — here are 2 risky areas he wants investors to avoid

Taleb’s career has been devoted to advocating for systems that he describes as “antifragile,” which means they can withstand the shock of statistically rare and disruptive events. But his warning about the current economic climate is less about rare, unpredictable events and more about what he says is right in front of us.

White Swan

Black swan events describe economic events that come as a complete surprise and have a major impact on the landscape. The next crisis, however, may be developing right under our noses.

“A white swan! It’s a white swan event,” Taleb said during the interview.

He believes the economic risks we currently face are obvious. After years of ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., we have piled on unsustainable levels of debt.

Now that interest rates are climbing, this debt is due and some borrowers may not be able to afford repayments.

“The risk is right in front of us. If you see a fragile bridge, you know it’s going to collapse at some point,” Taleb said. “So you need to fix it. How do you fix it?”

The solution, he says, is to reduce debt and take measures that are beyond “cosmetic.” In Taleb’s view, two segments of the global capital market are extremely vulnerable: real estate and new technology.

New technology

Taleb doesn’t buy into the hype surrounding artificial intelligence. He believes the startup ecosystem is built on shaky ground.

“The methodology of the startup business has changed,” he said. “In the past, you used to be selling your future cash flow. Now, you’re selling future funding.”

After a sharp decline over the past year, startup valuations seem to be on a modest upswing, according to TechCrunch. Similarly, the NASDAQ is up around 31% year to date. Much of the excitement lately in the tech sector has been about new generative artificial intelligence and large language models.

However, Taleb believes the industry is in a risky and volatile state.