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Add us on GoogleOver the last few years, a Great Sobering has overtaken America and Europe, leaving the future of major beer manufacturers hazy.
The percentage of Americans who drink alcohol reached a record low of 54% in 2025, while 71% of Europeans reported consuming less alcohol in a 2025 analysis from market research company Circana.
While the move away from alcohol may be beneficial for the livers of the increasing number of teetotalers, reduced alcohol consumption has forced beer manufacturers to rethink their strategies and look at other burgeoning markets.
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Heineken’s decades-long investment in the Vietnamese beer market
One such manufacturer that tapped into these emerging markets is Heineken, which has invested $1 billion in the Vietnamese beer market since entering in 1991, when it opened its first brewery in Ho Chi Minh City over three decades ago. Heineken now owns six breweries throughout the country.
Heineken’s investment has aged like wine, the company leading the Vietnamese market with 43% of the market share in 2023, surpassing domestic beer brand Sabeco with 33.9% of the market.
And Vietnam is a sizable market, outdrinking far more populous countries. In 2024, Vietnam ranked 8th in overall beer consumption, drinking more beer than every other Asian country excluding China, which placed first overall. “In Vietnam, if there’s a celebration, beer plays a central role.” Wietse Mutters, Heineken NV’s Vietnam chief, told Bloomberg.
However, as a market, Vietnam presents its own challenges. Heineken’s profits suffered in the first half of 2023 due to an economic slowdown in Vietnam, represented by a 13.2% fall in beer volumes and operating profits reduced by a third. Additionally, while Heineken reported a nearly 10% growth in sales volume in 2025, much of Vietnam’s beer industry experienced a major drop in revenue last year. Carlsberg reported a low-double-digit percentage decline in Vietnam, and Sabeco reported its weakest revenue in a decade.
According to a report from InsightAsia, Vietnam might not be immune to the Great Sobering. Per capita consumption of beer in Vietnam has dropped consistently over the past few years, from 46 liters in 2023 to a projected 41 liters in 2026. In the same span of time, total beer production dropped from 4.6 billion liters to a forecasted 4.15 billion liters.
Regulatory tightening, including a heavily enforced zero-alcohol driving rule, has especially impacted consumption of alcohol in bars and restaurants, and a 25% excise tax hike taking place in 5% increments from 2026 to 2031 is expected to impact demand.
“When one market is underwater for whatever economic reasons, another is excelling,” Mutters says.
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The next big beer market
As Vietnam’s beer market cools, the question becomes: where will this new, excelling market emerge?
Last year, Heineken announced a $2.75 billion investment in various projects around Mexico, including a new factory in Yucatan. Mexico ranked fourth in beer consumption in 2024, experiencing a 9% growth rate from 2022 to 2023 compared to the global average of 0.5%
That said, India, ranked 12th in beer consumption, increased beer consumption by 14.6% from 2022 to 2023. Earlier this year, Soufflet Malt, the world’s largest malt producer, announced a 100 million euro investment in a new production facility in India, while simultaneously closing two factories in Germany and one in the UK.
“Emerging markets are where the game is,” Kevin Baker, a researcher at analytics firm GlobalData, told Bloomberg. “It’s basically where they’re going to get volume.”
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Paul Kim is a Brooklyn-based freelance writer and editor. He has spent much of his career in service journalism, helping readers make smart decisions, whether they’re looking for the best pet insurance or a great place to grab lunch.
