May 18, 2026
Hold the champagne — Jamie Dimon just gave investors a cause for pause. The JPMorgan Chase CEO told Bloomberg (1) the markets may have "too much exuberance" and he's "kind of a skeptic."
These comments come at a time when the stock market has rallied sharply off its March lows. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell about 9% from its January high before recovering to a nearly 9% gain for the year. (2) Dimon's cold-water remarks are a soft departure from general optimism.
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Outlier though he may be, Dimon isn't the only forecaster taking a cautious market stance. Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 housing crash, recently posted on Substack (3) that the stock market party may be coming to an end. Both men cite broad-based signals as reason investors might want to think twice before diving into today's frothy market.
Oil and inflation risk lost to the noise
Dimon says consumers may be underestimating the risk posed by a potential oil crisis.
"Every day, it gets a little bit worse," Dimon told Bloomberg (1) in a discussion that touched on the war raging in the Middle East. On oil, the CEO says Chinese demand has fallen and U.S. supply has risen, cushioning prices for now. He warns the situation could escalate because inventories are dropping. "It gets a little more serious every day," he says.
Right now, Dimon isn't worried about consumer spending. However, he highlights a split between the top 50% and the bottom 30% of spenders, who are "struggling a little bit" thanks to stagnant wages. This claim is supported by 2025 data from the Economic Policy Institute, which shows real wages for low-income workers declined 0.3%. (4)
That could change if oil prices go up. An analysis published by asset manager Vanguard suggests that rising oil prices could push inflation higher and, if sustained, lead to stagflation — when prices go up, unemployment rises, and the economy stops growing. (5) It highlights the conflict in Iran, suggesting a prolonged war could raise prices and keep them high.
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Is AI the guest of honor, or another party crasher?
Burry blames AI for feeding what could be a massive, money-burning bubble. "Absolutely non-stop AI. Nobody is talking about anything else all day," Burry wrote in a May Substack post. (3)
Burry compared current market conditions to the end of the 1999-2000 dot com bubble. He points to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which has more than doubled in the last year and risen over 60% in 2026 alone. (3) Semiconductor gains have been driven by surging data center demand tied to the generative AI boom, led by companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. (6)
Industry insiders have pushed back against Burry's AI skepticism. Last year, Alex Karp, CEO of software company Palantir, called out Burry for betting against Palantir and Nvidia. (7)
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"The two companies he's shorting are the ones making all the money, which is super weird," Karp told CNBC's Squawk Box. "The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is bats*** crazy." Burry recently said he's still betting against Palantir. (8)
Dimon is optimistic about the benefits of AI, but he does highlight one major risk that could impact the market: cybersecurity. It's an open question whether AI will trigger a cybersecurity crisis, one the nation's military complex is taking seriously. Recently, Reuters reported the Pentagon has deployed Anthropic's unreleased Mythos model to patch cybersecurity gaps. (9)
It might be time to bounce, one investor says
Burry suggests investors reduce their exposure to stocks benefiting from the AI boom. But that doesn't necessarily mean selling everything.
"An easier way for most is to simply reduce exposure to stocks, to tech stocks in particular," Burry wrote. "For any stocks going parabolic reduce positions almost entirely." (10) The advice suggests Burry thinks the correction will be concentrated amongst the buzziest stocks.
The investor famous for shorting warns against shorting the market. "It is not something most people should ever do," he said. He said the idea is to raise cash for when prices inevitably fall. (10)
Burry's investment philosophy echoes the famous Warren Buffett quote, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." The CNN Fear and Greed Index measures the position of today's stock market as 'Greed.' (11)
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Bloomberg (1); Yahoo Finance (2); CNBC (3),(7),(8),(10); Economic Policy Institute (4); Vanguard (5); Reuters (6),(9); CNN (11)
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Cole Tretheway has been covering money for four years. He started as an intern at The Motley Fool Money, covering best-of credit cards, savings accounts, and financial products. He's since expanded into wholistic personal finances, including the psychology of money.
