A college student said he won $100,000 on Polymarket betting Trump would say 'McDonald’s' – but it may have never happened. How fake bets can fool you

But a Wall Street Journal investigation found that many of those viral stories may not have been real. After reviewing more than 1,100 videos, the newspaper reported that some creators promoting Polymarket allegedly used simulated versions of the platform to create the appearance of large profits and attract new users.

The Journal identified several websites that looked nearly identical to Polymarket, including one password-protected site that used a misspelled version of the company’s web address.

‘Free money’ is an effective sales pitch

Makihara, who declined to comment to the outlet, was among dozens of college-aged creators the Journal says were paid to film themselves placing trades and showing off their earnings.

The Journal found that about 70% of the videos showed creators appearing to place bets on Polymarket, a platform where cryptocurrency is used to wager on the outcome of future events. These wagers can be on everything from election outcomes and sports championships to economic reports and world news.

The investigation, however, found that many trades — worth a combined $1.9 million — did not appear genuine. Creators allegedly reacted to old video clips or fabricated headlines to make it seem they had won money. For example, Makihara was shown reacting enthusiastically to a clip of Trump saying the world “McDonald’s” — a clip the Journal says was two months old (they also note that Trump never said the word publicly in January and that the 50 actual bets on the platform that made this prediction lost).

The investigation found that 118 videos showed creators celebrating nearly $900,000 in apparent winnings, even though those same bets would have actually lost more than $166,000.

The promise of easy profits may not match the reality for most users. A separate Wall Street Journal analysis reported that 67% of profits on Polymarket went to just 0.1% of accounts. More than 1.1 million of the platform’s 1.6 million accounts were unprofitable, per the report.

For those unfamiliar with prediction markets, Adam Bjorn, CEO of Plannatech and operator of Prime Sportsbook, says the concept itself is fairly straightforward.

“Prediction markets aren’t a new concept — they’re older than I am,” Bjorn told Moneywise. “At their core, they work just like buying and selling stock in Apple or Amazon. The key difference is that, at the end of the day, the game, or the election, the contract is worth either everything or nothing.”

How prediction markets went viral

Creators interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they were paid between $2,000 and $3,000 a month to promote Polymarket. Some also said they were instructed not to disclose that they were being paid.

The campaign follows a familiar social media playbook: pay popular creators to showcase a product and share their experiences with followers. But unlike a typical influencer promotion, prediction markets involve financial risk and users can lose money.

That has raised concerns about transparency. According to the Journal, many creators did not initially disclose their relationship with Polymarket. Only after the newspaper began investigating did some add “@polymarket partner” to their bios.

The controversy comes as prediction markets attract a growing audience. According to Bjorn, part of the appeal is that the platforms feel familiar to people who already trade stocks and cryptocurrencies.

“If you’re trading Apple, Amazon and Microsoft through the week on Robinhood, and then the weekend arrives with no stocks to trade but a golf tournament, a football game or a soccer match on — you’re now buying and selling that event the exact same way you would a stock or a crypto asset,” he explained.

Growing scrutiny

As prediction markets grow, regulators are paying closer attention. One concern is that people with insider information could use it to profit from bets before the public knows what’s happening.

Earlier this year, U.S. authorities charged Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke after alleging he used classified information about a military operation involving former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket. Prosecutors say Van Dyke turned roughly $33,000 in wagers into nearly $410,000 in profits before details of the operation became public. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Regulators have also raised concerns about how prediction markets are promoted to consumers, especially when marketing suggests profits are easier or more likely than they really are. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees prediction markets, has pushed back against efforts by several states to impose their own rules on companies like Polymarket.

In response to the allegations raised in the Wall Street Journal investigation, a Polymarket spokesperson told Moneywise the company is reviewing its promotional content to ensure it complies with company standards and disclosure requirements.

If it sounds too good to be true

Many of the videos highlighted in the investigation followed a similar formula: a creator places a trade, celebrates a big payout and suggests making money on the platform is easy.