Aug 24, 2023
With the 2024 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries expected to plunge when it’s due in October, there’s one natural factor that may yet increase the final figure: hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as of Aug. 10, has predicted a 60% chance hurricane activity will be above normal levels this Atlantic hurricane season. The season is set to end Nov. 30.
Advertisement
Experts fear these storms may hit oil refineries along the Gulf Coast.
“A major storm impacting the Gulf Coast and nearby refineries will likely lead to a spike in gas prices for a few weeks,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross told CNBC.
Such circumstances could affect the 2024 COLA.
“The COLA estimate will go up if the price of gasoline jumps considerably,” Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), told the news outlet. “The COLA estimate might go down if gas and oil prices drop.”
How gas prices are tied to the COLA
Each year, the COLA is calculated based on a subset of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The CPI-W tracks the cost of many common expenses, such as food, housing and transportation.
The formula specifically looks at the average third-quarter (July, August and September) CPI-W figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July CPI report on Aug. 10, showing the CPI-W increased 2.6% over the previous 12 months.
If gas prices spike at any time in August and September, it could increase the final COLA figure.
Must Read
- Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and the simple steps to fix it ASAP
- Robert Kiyosaki begs investors not to miss this ‘explosion’ — says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year
- Vanguard reveals what could be coming for U.S. stocks, and it’s raising alarm bells for retirees. Here’s why and how to protect yourself
Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.
Seniors already expecting decreased COLA
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates that the 2024 COLA will be far lower than the previous year.
The 2023 COLA was 8.7% thanks to high inflation. But with inflation now cooling, TSCL estimates a 3% COLA for 2024. This would increase Social Security beneficiaries’ average monthly benefit by $53.50, from $1,787 to $1,840.
You May Also Like
- Turning 50 with $0 saved for retirement? Most people don’t realize they’re actually just entering their prime earning decade. Here are 6 ways to catch up fast
- This 20-year-old lotto winner refused $1M in cash and chose $1,000/week for life. Now she’s getting slammed for it. Which option would you pick?
- Warren Buffett used these 8 repeatable money rules to turn $9,800 into a $150B fortune. Start using them today to get rich (and stay rich)
- Here are 5 easy ways to own multiple properties like Bezos and Beyoncé. You can start with $10 (and no, you don’t have to manage a single thing)
Sabina Wex is a writer and podcast producer in Toronto. Her work has appeared in Business Insider, Fast Company, CBC and more.
