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Moneywise
Updated Apr 14, 2026
Vanguard pioneered the concept of index fund investing, and currently has a whopping $11 trillion in assets under management. It’s a real heavyweight in the American stock market.
So when the company issues a report about the future of the stock market — it’s worth a closer look. In July, the company published a 10-year forecast for a wide range of asset classes, ranging from municipal bonds to mortgage-backed securities.
But it’s the forecast about stocks that should raise alarm bells for many U.S. retirees. Here’s a closer look at what the report suggests seniors can expect in the years ahead.
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Lackluster U.S. stock performance
According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years. That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%.
In other words, Vanguard’s analysts believe future performance won’t be nearly as impressive as investors have experienced in recent years, barring a sharp drop during COVID.
The team’s forecast about so-called “growth stocks” is even worse. Vanguard expects an annualized return between 1.9% and 3.9% over the next 10 years. That’s uncomfortably close to the 4% withdrawal rate many retirees depend on to meet living expenses.
If you’re already retired or approaching retirement and your portfolio is overweight U.S. stocks, these forecasts should cause some concern.
Consider speaking with a trusted, pre-screened financial advisor about your specific retirement goals and financial circumstances to help you develop a solid strategy.
According to research by Vanguard, people who work with financial advisors see a 3% increase in net returns.
With Vanguard, you can connect with a personal advisor who can help assess how you’re doing so far and make sure you've got the right portfolio to meet your goals on time.
Vanguard’s hybrid advisory system combines advice from professional advisers and automated portfolio management to make sure your investments are working to achieve your financial goals.
All you have to do is fill out a brief questionnaire about your financial goals, and Vanguard’s advisors will help you set a tailored plan, and stick to it.
A well-diversified portfolio could help you stabilize your retirement regardless of the shifting dynamics of individual asset classes.
If you prefer a hands-off, digital approach to building wealth, Vanguard Digital Advisor puts the investing expertise of one of the world’s largest asset managers right at your fingertips.
It takes the guesswork out of investing by building a personalized portfolio for you using Vanguard’s well-known low-cost ETFs and mutual funds — then keeps things running smoothly with automatic rebalancing.
The platform also offers guidance on saving for retirement and lets you set additional goals as your life evolves.
It can even help you think through debt repayment strategies, potentially freeing up more cash to invest toward your long-term plans.
With a minimum investment of just $100, it’s an easy way to get started with professionally guided investing.
For every $10,000 in an all-index portfolio, you'll pay approximately $15 to $16 per year¹.
You can even test-drive the Vanguard experience with no advisory fees for the first 90 days.
Better alternatives
Fortunately, the report also highlights other asset classes that could perform better in the years ahead.
Not all asset classes are facing a bleak decade. In fact, some could outperform. Vanguard’s forecast suggests that U.S. Treasury bonds could deliver annualized returns ranging from 3.8% to 4.8% over the next 10 years. That’s a better return rate than you could get with growth stocks, but with far less volatility and risk.
The firm also expects to see stock markets in developed countries outside the U.S. outperforming. Developed market equities, excluding American stocks, are expected to deliver 5.7% to 7.7% annualized by 2035.
There are already signs of this trend playing out. Canada’s benchmark stock index, the S&P/TSX Composite, has delivered a 23.9% return this year through mid-October. That’s higher than the S&P 500’s 13.8% return over the same period.
Similarly, UBS Group expects $1.4 trillion of capital to rotate from U.S. to European equities in the next five years.
This is where stock picking can become an especially attractive strategy for generating above-average returns. While it can require more work and dedication than simply investing in a broad-based index, there are plenty of high-grade tools out there to help with the process.
For instance, platforms like Moby can help make that process simpler and smoother. Moby offers you investment insights broken down into simple, easy-to-understand language — no jargon here.
Each week, Moby delivers one to three curated stock picks straight to you. Reports are written by a team of former hedge fund analysts and financial experts who spend hundreds of hours per week sifting through the latest financial news and data.
The best part? Moby's picks have beaten the S&P 500’s returns by almost 12%, on average.
What should you do?
It’s worth taking any future prediction of the stock market, even the ones from trillion-dollar fund managers, with a grain of salt. It’s impossible to say if U.S. stocks will overshoot or undershoot Vanguard’s forecast.
Nevertheless, diversifying your portfolio to be less reliant on domestic stocks could be a good idea.
According to Alliance Bernstein’s analysis of Morningstar, U.S. investors hold just 15% of their portfolios in international stocks, which puts them at risk of “home bias” (5). If your portfolio is too domestic, consider adding some international stocks and bonds.
Or, you can look at alternative assets, such as gold.
Gold is a known hedge against stock market volatility, and can be a solid way to help protect your retirement funds from eroding in a recession. In just the past six months, gold prices have surged by nearly 50%. In late January, gold breached a high water mark of over $5,000 per ounce.
Opening a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold allows you to invest in gold and other precious metals in physical forms while also providing the significant tax advantages of an IRA.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This can make it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.
Priority Gold is an industry leader in precious metals, offering physical delivery of gold and silver. Plus, they have an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau and a 5-star rating from Trust Link.
If you’d like to convert an existing IRA into a gold IRA, Priority Gold offers 100% free rollover, as well as free shipping, and free storage for up to five years. Qualifying purchases will also receive up to $10,000 in free silver.
To learn more about how Priority Gold can help you reduce inflation’s impact on your nest egg, download their free 2026 gold investor bundle.
It can also pay to make sure your hard-earned savings are being put to work in the background. Unlike investments, savings carry a much lower risk of losing their value.
So, getting a solid rate of return on your savings account is a less risky way to grow your wealth with greater reliability and stability.
For instance, a high-yield cash account can be a great place to grow your savings and emergency funds, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your cash when you need it.
A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base variable APY of 3.30%, and new clients can get a 0.65% boost during their first three months for a total APY of 3.95%. That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s January report.
With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, Wealthfront Cash Account balances of up to $8 million are insured by the FDIC through program banks.
With a Certificate of Deposit (CD), you lock in a rate upfront, so your earnings stay fixed for a set term, even if market rates slip.
For those seeking predictable, reliable growth, a platform like CD Valet can help you find higher-yield options that work for you, whether you’re saving for something soon or building a cushion for the long haul.
CD Valet tracks over 40,000 verified rates from FDIC-insured banks and NCUA-insured credit unions nationwide. Unlike other websites, they show every publicly available rate, ensuring you have a comprehensive view of the market.
To help you save smarter, CD Valet provides free, specialized tools.
- Earnings calculator: See exactly how much interest you’ll accrue by the end of your term. Adjust different rates and terms to see how much you can earn with a 12-month vs. a 24-month CD.
- CD rates map by state: See real-time offers of the best CD rates across the country. Many institutions allow you to open an online account, so you can take advantage of a great CD rate without being located in that state.
Plus, their CD rates are updated continuously so you can shop, compare and open CDs with ease.
Diversify beyond stocks with real estate
For generations, real estate has proven to be one of the most reliable ways to grow wealth, offering a powerful mix of steady income, long-term appreciation and portfolio diversification.
In fact, a PwC survey found that over 50% of billionaires allocate between 21% and 40% of their wealth to real estate, regardless of how they made their fortunes.
But you don’t need billionaire status to take advantage of this asset class.
Private real estate funds allow investors to gain exposure to valuable property assets without the hassles of direct ownership.
The Fundrise Flagship Fund⁵ is a $1 billion private real estate fund that lets you invest in an expertly crafted strategy without needing hundreds of thousands of dollars. You don’t need to be an accredited investor, and you can get started with as little as $10.
Industrial
215 Interchange
Las Vegas, NV
Build-for-rent
Pine Ridge
Fountain Inn, SC
Build-for-rent
Omnia
Richmond Hill, GA
These are a few examples of properties powering the Fundrise Flagship Fund. For a full list of the Fundrise Flagship Fund's portfolio properties see the Flagship Fund website.
With 4,700+ single-family homes and 2,500+ residential units owned by the Fundrise Flagship Fund, you get exposure to institutional-style scale and diversification.
After you place your first investment, the Fundrise Flagship Fund will work to find and add new assets to your portfolio over time and send you transparent updates along the way.
It only takes a few minutes to sign up now and become a real estate investor today.
Fundrise Flagship Fund
Buy real estate through Fundrise's $1 billion private fund
Institutional investors have long looked to private-market real estate as a way to help stabilize their portfolios. The asset class offers a mix of potential tax benefits, regular cash flow, a hedge against inflation, and returns that are less correlated with public equities.
Historically, individual investors haven’t had great options for accessing high-quality, private-market real estate.
In recent years, crowdfunding platforms have opened access to a broader demographic, but outcomes often depend on factors like deal structure, platform incentives and the expertise of the sponsor.
Lightstone DIRECT’s direct-to-investor model ensures a high degree of alignment between individual investors and a vertically-integrated, institutional owner-operator — a sophisticated and streamlined option for individual investors looking to diversify into private-market real estate.
Featured
Residential
Columbus, OH
Featured
Industrial
Tobyhanna, PA
Featured
Residential
Beverly Hills, MI
These are a few examples of past properties or acquisitions from Lightstone. Explore more investment opportunities when you register with Lightstone DIRECT.
With Lightstone DIRECT, accredited individuals can access the same multifamily and industrial assets Lightstone pursues with its own capital, with minimum investments starting at $100,000.
A finer alternative
There is also another alternative investment that you may want to consider.
With the current volatility in the market, diversification isn’t just smart — it’s essential. Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates continue to invest heavily in stocks, but they also carve out a portion of their portfolios for assets that behave differently from the market.
One standout example: post-war and contemporary art, which outpaced the S&P 500 by 15% from 1995 to 2025 while showing near-zero correlation to traditional equities.
Until recently, this world was off-limits. Now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique portfolio diversification.
Masterworks has sold 25 artworks so far, yielding net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*
Moneywise readers can get priority access to diversify with art: Skip the waitlist here
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investing involves risk. See important Regulation A disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd
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