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Moneywise
Updated Jan 30, 2026
Vanguard pioneered the concept of index fund investing, and currently has a whopping $11 trillion in assets under management. It’s a real heavyweight in the American stock market.
So when the company issues a report about the future of the stock market — it’s worth a closer look. In July, the company published a 10-year forecast for a wide range of asset classes, ranging from municipal bonds to mortgage-backed securities.
But it’s the forecast about stocks that should raise alarm bells for many U.S. retirees. Here’s a closer look at what the report suggests seniors can expect in the years ahead.
Lackluster U.S. stock performance
According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years. That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%.
In other words, Vanguard’s analysts believe future performance won’t be nearly as impressive as investors have experienced in recent years, barring a sharp drop during COVID.
The team’s forecast about so-called “growth stocks” is even worse. Vanguard expects an annualized return between 1.9% and 3.9% over the next 10 years. That’s uncomfortably close to the 4% withdrawal rate many retirees depend on to meet living expenses.
If you’re already retired or approaching retirement and your portfolio is overweight U.S. stocks, these forecasts should cause some concern.
Consider speaking with a trusted, pre-screened financial advisor about your specific retirement goals and financial circumstances to help you develop a solid strategy.
According to research by Vanguard, people who work with financial advisors see a 3% increase in net returns.
With Vanguard, you can connect with a personal advisor who can help assess how you’re doing so far and make sure you've got the right portfolio to meet your goals on time.
Vanguard’s hybrid advisory system combines advice from professional advisers and automated portfolio management to make sure your investments are working to achieve your financial goals.
All you have to do is fill out a brief questionnaire about your financial goals, and Vanguard’s advisors will help you set a tailored plan, and stick to it.
A well-diversified portfolio could help you stabilize your retirement regardless of the shifting dynamics of individual asset classes.
Fortunately, the report also highlights other asset classes that could perform better in the years ahead.
Better alternatives
Not all asset classes are facing a bleak decade. In fact, some could outperform. Vanguard’s forecast suggests that U.S. Treasury bonds could deliver annualized returns ranging from 3.8% to 4.8% over the next 10 years. That’s a better return rate than you could get with growth stocks, but with far less volatility and risk.
The firm also expects to see stock markets in developed countries outside the U.S. outperforming. Developed market equities, excluding American stocks, are expected to deliver 5.7% to 7.7% annualized by 2035.
There are already signs of this trend playing out. Canada’s benchmark stock index, the S&P/TSX Composite, has delivered a 23.9% return this year through mid-October. That’s higher than the S&P 500’s 13.8% return over the same period.
Similarly, UBS Group expects $1.4 trillion of capital to rotate from U.S. to European equities in the next five years (4).
This is where stock picking can become an especially attractive strategy for generating above-average returns. While it can require more work and dedication than simply investing in a broad-based index, there are plenty of high-grade tools out there to help with the process.
For instance, platforms like Moby can help make that process simpler and smoother. Moby offers you investment insights broken down into simple, easy-to-understand language — no jargon here.
Each week, Moby delivers one to three curated stock picks straight to you. Reports are written by a team of former hedge fund analysts and financial experts who spend hundreds of hours per week sifting through the latest financial news and data.
The best part? Moby's picks have beaten the S&P 500’s returns by almost 12%, on average.
What should you do?
It’s worth taking any future prediction of the stock market, even the ones from trillion-dollar fund managers, with a grain of salt. It’s impossible to say if U.S. stocks will overshoot or undershoot Vanguard’s forecast.
Nevertheless, diversifying your portfolio to be less reliant on domestic stocks could be a good idea.
According to Alliance Bernstein’s analysis of Morningstar, U.S. investors hold just 15% of their portfolios in international stocks, which puts them at risk of “home bias” (5). If your portfolio is too domestic, consider adding some international stocks and bonds.
Or, you can look at alternative assets, such as gold.
Gold is a known hedge against stock market volatility, and can be a solid way to help protect your retirement funds from eroding in a recession. In just the past six months, gold prices have surged by nearly 50%. In late January, gold breached a high water mark of over $5,000 per ounce.
Opening a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold allows you to invest in gold and other precious metals in physical forms while also providing the significant tax advantages of an IRA.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold. This can make it an attractive option for those looking to potentially hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.
Priority Gold is an industry leader in precious metals, offering physical delivery of gold and silver. Plus, they have an A+ rating from the Better Business Bureau and a 5-star rating from Trust Link.
If you’d like to convert an existing IRA into a gold IRA, Priority Gold offers 100% free rollover, as well as free shipping, and free storage for up to five years. Qualifying purchases will also receive up to $10,000 in free silver.
To learn more about how Priority Gold can help you reduce inflation’s impact on your nest egg, download their free 2026 gold investor bundle.
It can also pay to make sure your hard-earned savings are being put to work in the background. Unlike investments, savings carry a much lower risk of losing their value.
So, getting a solid rate of return on your savings account is a less risky way to grow your wealth with greater reliability and stability.
For instance, a high-yield cash account can be a great place to grow your savings and emergency funds, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your cash when you need it.
A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base variable APY of 3.30%, and new clients can get a 0.65% boost during their first three months for a total APY of 3.95%. That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s January report.
With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, Wealthfront Cash Account balances of up to $8 million are insured by the FDIC through program banks.
A finer alternative
There is also another alternative investment that you may want to consider.
With the current volatility in the market, diversification isn’t just smart — it’s essential. Billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates continue to invest heavily in stocks, but they also carve out a portion of their portfolios for assets that behave differently from the market.
One standout example: post-war and contemporary art, which outpaced the S&P 500 by 15% from 1995 to 2025 while showing near-zero correlation to traditional equities.
Until recently, this world was off-limits. Now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique portfolio diversification.
Masterworks has sold 25 artworks so far, yielding net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*
Moneywise readers can get priority access to diversify with art: Skip the waitlist here
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investing involves risk. See important Regulation A disclosures at Masterworks.com/cd
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