Vanguard pioneered the concept of index fund investing, and currently has a whopping $11 trillion in assets under management. It’s a real heavyweight in the American stock market.
So when the company issues a report about the future of the stock market — it’s worth a closer look. In July, the company published a 10-year forecast for a wide range of asset classes, ranging from municipal bonds to mortgage-backed securities.
But it’s the forecast about stocks that should raise alarm bells for many U.S. retirees. Here’s a closer look at what the report suggests seniors can expect in the years ahead.
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Get an annuity with up to 10.5% a year Lackluster U.S. stock performance
According to Vanguard, the U.S. stock market is expected to deliver an annualized return of between 3.3% to 5.3% over the next 10 years. That is considerably lower than the previous 10 years. Since 2015, the S&P 500 has delivered an annualized return of 15.26%.
In other words, Vanguard’s analysts believe future performance won’t be nearly as impressive as investors have experienced in recent years, barring a sharp drop during COVID.
The team’s forecast about so-called “growth stocks” is even worse. Vanguard expects an annualized return between 1.9% and 3.9% over the next 10 years. That’s uncomfortably close to the 4% withdrawal rate many retirees depend on to meet living expenses.
If you’re already retired or approaching retirement and your portfolio is overweight U.S. stocks, these forecasts should cause some concern.
Consider speaking with a trusted, pre-screened financial advisor about your specific retirement goals and financial circumstances to help you develop a solid strategy.
Finding a financial advisor who suits your specific needs and financial goals is simple with Vanguard.
Vanguard’s hybrid advisory system combines advice from professional advisors and automated portfolio management to make sure your investments are working to achieve your financial goals.
With a minimum portfolio size of $50,000, this service is best for clients who already have a nest egg built and would like to try to grow their wealth with a variety of different investments. All you have to do is set up a consultation with a Vanguard advisor, and they will help you set a tailored plan and stick to it.
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Get sophisticated digital advice and access to advisors If you have a portfolio of $250,000 or more, platforms like WiserAdvisor can connect you with vetted professionals who specialize in this kind of planning.
Simply answer a few questions about your savings, retirement timeline and overall investment portfolio.
From there, WiserAdvisor reviews its network to match you — for free — with up to three vetted, reputable advisors aligned with your specific needs.
You can then schedule no-obligation consultations with your matches to determine who is the best fit for your long-term goals.
A well-diversified portfolio could help you stabilize your retirement regardless of the shifting dynamics of individual asset classes.
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Get matched with 2 or 3 experts based on your needs WiserAdvisor is a matching service and does not provide financial advice directly. All matched advisors are third parties, and specific financial results are not guaranteed.
Plan for how to bridge income gaps
Most retirees follow a carefully planned withdrawal strategy to manage income and minimize taxes. Given Vanguard's forecast for weaker stock returns, your portfolio may grow more slowly than originally planned.
If you're retired and have paid off most or all of your mortgage, a HELOC gives you flexible access to cash without forcing you to withdraw from tax-advantaged accounts.
A HELOC can help you maintain your withdrawal strategy and avoid early withdrawal penalties — though it should be one tool among several, not your entire plan.
Companies like AmeriSave offer competitive HELOC options that let you tap your equity without touching your primary mortgage rate. It's one of the more underused levers available to retirees with built-up equity.
Amerisave is well-suited for homeowners who want a mostly online, low-friction experience from a well-known mortgage lender. However, it's important to evaluate the risks carefully since your home serves as collateral.
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Find low rates to access your home equity Better alternatives: How to position your portfolio
Fortunately, not all asset classes are facing a bleak decade. International equities are expected to deliver 5.7% to 7.7% annualized returns by 2035, with U.S. bonds at 3.8% to 4.8%.
According to Alliance Bernstein’s analysis of Morningstar, U.S. investors hold just 15% of their portfolios in international stocks, which puts them at risk of “home bias”.
If your portfolio is too domestic, consider adding some international stocks and bonds. Or, consider diversifying your portfolio with alternative assets, such as gold and real estate.
Gold as a hedge against stock market volatility
Gold has been a go-to hedge for centuries. It isn't tied to any single currency or government, and it can't be printed. That independence is why investors tend to rotate toward precious metals during periods of volatility.
Gold prices rose more than 80% year to date in 2025, setting multiple record highs along the way.
This chart shows the price of gold over the past five years. If you want to see whether opening a precious metals IRA is the right investment to diversify your portfolio, download a free info guide.
One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA.
A gold IRA allows you to directly invest in physical gold or gold-related assets within your retirement portfolio, pairing the tax advantages of an IRA with gold’s track record as a long-term store of value.
There are specific rules around gold IRAs, and some states have different tax structures for the sale of gold and silver. It’s important to choose the right dealer and custodian to help you navigate regulatory and taxation hurdles.
Some companies also offer incentives, such as free IRA rollovers or free precious metals. American Hartford Gold, for instance, offers up to $25,000 in free silver on qualifying orders.
If you’re curious whether this is the right investment to diversify your portfolio, you can download a free gold IRA information guide.
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Diversify your retirement fund with a gold IRA Real estate as a diversification anchor
Stocks haven't been this expensive in a long time. By one popular measure — the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio — which compares prices with 10 years of earnings, the S&P 500 is above 40. It has hit that level only once before, during the dot-com bubble.
That doesn't mean a crash is coming, but it may be a smart time to ask how much of your wealth rides on a single index.
That's one reason some accredited investors are turning to private real estate. Its income comes from rent, not stock prices, so it doesn't always move with the market.
For years, though, these opportunities were largely reserved for institutions with deep pockets. If you wanted exposure to large-scale developments or real estate joint ventures, you generally needed millions of dollars to get in the door.
Crowdfunding platforms changed that by making it easier to invest in real estate online. But many of these offerings focus on smaller deals.
Lightstone DIRECT offers a more direct route. The platform is backed by Lightstone, one of the largest privately held real estate firms in the U.S., with $12 billion in assets under management. Through it, accredited investors can access the same multifamily and industrial assets Lightstone pursues with its own capital.
Retail
Oklahoma City, OKC
Multifamily
Grand Rapids, MI These are a few examples of past properties or acquisitions from Lightstone. With a minimum investment of $100,000, you can explore more investment opportunities when you register with Lightstone DIRECT.
By cutting out brokers and crowdfunding middlemen, Lightstone DIRECT streamlines access to institutional-quality deals, with a $100,000 minimum investment.
Lightstone also co-invests at least 20% of its own capital in every deal, roughly four times the industry average, so its interests are tied directly to yours.
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Multifamily and industrial real estate for accredited investors Realberry¹ is another platform that offers exposure to real estate opportunities traditionally reserved for large investment firms and private capital groups.
With a 35-year track record, $3.6 billion in assets under management and $1.6 billion in realized proceeds, the firm invests across multiple commercial real estate sectors, including multifamily, build-to-rent, hospitality, mixed-use and industrial properties.
Hospitality
Austin Proper, TX
Multifamily
Foundry Line, CO These are a few examples of past funded properties from Realberry. Explore more investment opportunities when you register with Realberry.
Because Realberry manages acquisition, development and execution in-house, investors gain transparency and insight by working directly with the firm managing the entire lifecycle of their investment.
The company also controls more than 6,000 acres of master-planned development land across high-growth Mountain West markets, providing access to opportunities that can be difficult for individual investors to source on their own.
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Invest in large-scale developments as an accredited investor Protect your principal with a fixed index annuity
Vanguard's outlook doesn't mean you need to abandon the stock market, but it may make sense to limit how much of your nest egg depends on it.
If you want some market upside without risking your principal, an annuity can offer a middle ground.
One option you may want to consider is a fixed index annuity (FIA) through Ethos. It can help protect 100% of your principal from index-linked losses while giving you the opportunity to earn interest based on the performance of a market index.
When the index rises, you can earn interest based on its gains, subject to applicable limits such as current annual cap rates ranging from 8% to 12% on S&P 500 Index Accounts, depending on the carrier and contract terms.² When the index falls, a 0% guaranteed floor means index-linked losses won't reduce your principal.
An FIA can also help you diversify your retirement income strategy. When you're ready to start taking income, you can convert your savings into predictable income and — for those 59 and older — get lifetime guaranteed income, backed by the issuing insurer's claims-paying ability and subject to annuitization, rider elections, and contract terms including surrender charges.
If you're considering an FIA, book a free consultation with a licensed Ethos insurance agent to explore your options. No purchase is required.
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Get an annuity with up to 10.5% a year Not available for residents of New York.
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