Is the tide turning for homebuyers? A sea change is coming, and there are some key takeaways from experts on the real estate market. How to benefit

As of its latest November update, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index — a key measure of national home prices — rose another 1.4% year-over-year (1). The month of January 2026 wasn’t any kinder, with the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reporting a 0.9% annual increase in the median sales price of existing homes (2).

On the surface, these figures don’t look like great news for Americans who feel like owning a home is still a distant speck on the horizon. However, they might be a sign of good things to come.

That’s because those same figures actually represent a substantial cooling compared to recent years — and are a far cry from a 2.7% annual inflation rate in 2025 (3) — which may be a welcome change to some Americans hoping to purchase a home.

There’s even more good news. In January 2026, the median home price in the U.S. was $396,800 (2), which is down $18,400 from October 2025, according to data published by the NAR (4). And looking forward, several major real estate organizations — including Fannie Mae (5) and the NAR (6) — expect home price growth to remain low throughout 2026.

While this shift in prices could benefit buyers, there’s another group who should keep slow market growth in mind — sellers. Homeowners who are looking to sell could face declining home prices.

Here’s a closer look at why things are looking rosy for homebuyers, and what homeowners thinking about selling can do to protect themselves.

Why homebuyers could see relief

One big reason home prices generally remain high has been limited inventory. When supply is scarce, prices tend to rise.

The good news for homeowners is that housing inventory appears to be on the rise.

According to Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, “Inventory levels are about 20% above one year ago, so there are more choices for consumers (6).” Meanwhile, Realtor.com’s 2026 housing forecast predicts an 8.9% year-over-year increase in existing home inventory for 2026 (7).

This growing supply could help stabilize or even reduce home prices. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2026 outlook has already projected home prices will “decline for several quarters over the next few years” due in part to increased housing supply (8).

Another good sign for homebuyers is declining mortgage rates.

When rates are high, not only are homebuyers reluctant to buy — because it’s harder to finance their purchase — but homeowners are reluctant to sell — because they don’t want to trade lower, locked-in rates for higher ones.

However, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates have mostly fallen so far in 2026 (9). What’s more, the Federal Reserve announced a steady overnight interest rate of 3.50% to 3.75% in January 2026, indirectly impacting variable mortgages (10).

All told, this mix of increased inventory and lower mortgage rates points to a healthier market for those looking to buy in 2026.

But there are still the sellers to consider.

How homeowners can prepare

While U.S. home prices are unlikely to plummet, they are unlikely to skyrocket, either.

Although recession fears may be easing (11), American consumer confidence is still low. Consumer confidence is an important measurement of how Americans perceive the country’s current and future economic strength, and January 2026’s rate was a stark 40.1% lower than in January 2021 (12).

Some markets — particularly cities in major job hubs — can be more insulated from these effects. However, all homeowners should be prepared, as the housing market may continue to stall as people wait out economic uncertainty.

In the face of so much instability, it might be a good idea for homeowners to think about capitalizing on the equity they already have.

Leverage a HELOC to tap into your equity

As of Q3 2025, the average U.S. homeowner had approximately $299,000 in home equity, according to Cotality (13).

If you’re a homeowner, you may want to capitalize on that equity now — and protect yourself against a potential recession — by applying for a home equity line of credit (HELOC).

A HELOC could be a more flexible option than a home equity loan since it doesn’t require immediate installment payments. Instead, homeowners can access funds as needed.

One option worth considering is AmeriSave. The platform offers a flexible HELOC that lets homeowners borrow against their equity as needed during a draw period, making it useful for renovations or debt consolidation.

It could also be a good fit for borrowers who want convenience and flexibility rather than a large lump-sum loan upfront. You can draw funds only when you need them, making it convenient for ongoing or unpredictable costs. Plus, interest is charged only on what you use, and you repay the balance over time.

AmeriSave’s HELOC is available in most states and delivered through a mostly online application process. This can make it easy to see if a HELOC suits you and your financial situation.

Should you sell now?

If leveraging your equity doesn’t appeal to you as a homeowner, you might ask yourself if it’s just better to dive in and sell anyway.

The answer depends on your situation.

The market has been fairly consistent, but the tea leaves are pointing to a buyer’s market in the future, so selling before prices drop could allow you to lock in a higher sale price than you might get if you wait (14).

Now could also be a good time to sell if you’re downsizing, especially if you won’t need to take out a mortgage on a smaller or less expensive home.

And speaking of mortgages, lower rates in 2026 could be favorable if you’re planning to move, and you may even secure a lower mortgage rate than your current one.

But it helps to shop around a bit.

Shopping for the best mortgage

If you’re in the market for a new mortgage, the Mortgage Research Center (MRC) can help you quickly compare rates and estimated monthly payments from multiple vetted lenders in one place.

All you have to do is enter some basic information about yourself: your zip code, desired property type, price range and annual income. Based on the information you provide, MRC will show you mortgage offers tailored to your needs so you can shop for a mortgage with confidence.

After you match with a lender, you can set up a free no-obligation consultation to see if you’ve found the right fit.

Invest in rentals for passive income

Ultimately, no one has a crystal ball to foresee when the right time to sell will be based on current market conditions — which don’t give a clear picture of what to expect.

Goldman Sachs has decreased its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 20% from 30% last year (11) — which is good news — but inflation remains stubbornly stuck above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, Goldman’s chief economist David Mericle said the labor market is “the most uncertain piece of the 2026 outlook,” suggesting that, irrespective of a recession, the economy remains uncertain. Even if the housing market is improving, the risk of losing your job can be a pretty big reason to stay away from taking on a mortgage.