US home values are on the rise as median home prices hit $435K — but these 4 major cities are bucking that trend. Should buyers be taking advantage?

Yet recent S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller data reveal a notable exception: four major cities are bucking the trend with annual home‑price declines. With the national Case‑Shiller index still showing gains, these fou cities stand out precisely because they’re headed in the opposite direction.

But before building a moving plan around them, it’s essential to understand who this might actually help and how real the “bargain” might be.

Four cities with annual home-price declines

In May of 2025, U.S. home prices rose 2.3% on an annual basis. But in the four cities below, home prices fell.

Denver

Home prices in Denver slipped by just 0.01% in May compared with a year earlier. That tiny dip makes Denver the city with the smallest annual decline among the four on the Case-Shiller list.

Even though the change is hardly dramatic, it signals a cooling market. Denver saw a big run-up in prices during the pandemic, and higher mortgage rates are now cutting into what buyers can afford, with the average home price in Denver averaging about $546,00. With fewer people able to stretch for expensive homes, demand has softened and prices have leveled off.

San Francisco

A 0.64% decline in home prices puts San Francisco next on the list. That may not sound huge, but in a city where the average home still costs well over $1 million, even a small percentage drop can mean a big difference in dollars.

San Francisco’s market has been stretched for years, and high borrowing costs are only adding to the pressure. Some tech workers have moved away, and demand isn’t as frenzied as it was during the pandemic boom. That slowdown has given prices room to come down a bit.

Dallas

Dallas also recorded a 0.64% decline in May. Unlike San Francisco, though, Dallas is one of the few big markets where the average home price — around $311,000 — is actually lower than the national figure of about $368,000.

Part of what’s driving the drop is a rise in housing supply. With more homes on the market, buyers have more choices and sellers are forced to compete on price. That extra inventory has helped cool what was, until recently, a hot and fast-moving market.

Tampa

Finally, Tampa tops the list with the largest decline: home prices there fell 2.4% compared with last year. The average home value is still above the national level, at roughly $376,000, but it’s down noticeably from where it was just months ago.

Many buyers are being squeezed out by high mortgage rates and soaring insurance costs. Florida has some of the most expensive homeowners insurance premiums in the country, which adds a major burden on top of already steep prices. That combination has slowed demand and pushed values down.

Should you relocate to a city where home prices are falling?

It’s easy to get excited about home prices coming down, but it’s important to remember that three of the four cities on this list (San Francisco, Denver, and Tampa) are still more expensive than the national average. A dip in price doesn’t necessarily make these places affordable, especially when you factor in how high their starting points are.

That means moving to one of these markets just because values are slipping may not pay off. For buyers who already live in these cities, or for people who were planning to relocate there anyway, the price drops could make timing a purchase a little easier. But packing up and moving across the country in search of cheaper housing isn’t necessarily realistic if the overall costs remain steep.

There are also other things to weigh that don’t show up in the Case-Shiller index. A city’s job market, the cost of everyday living, insurance premiums, and even how far you’d be from friends or family all play a part in whether it makes sense to settle there.

The Case-Shiller data is useful because it highlights where the market is shifting. But ultimately, a home purchase is about more than chasing the rare cities where prices happen to be falling. The bigger question is whether those places make sense for your life, not just your mortgage.