Apr 25, 2026
After prosecutors disclosed charges against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an American soldier accused of leveraging classified information to place lucrative Polymarket bets on a covert operation in Venezuela, Donald Trump said that he's "not happy with any of that stuff."
"Never much in favor" of "betting things," Trump — who, prior to his presidency and before their bankruptcies, owned several casinos operated by Trump Entertainment Resorts in Atlantic City — described the world as "somewhat of a casino."
Advertisement
"I don't like it conceptually," Trump told journalists in the Oval Office, NBC News reported. "It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than it was." (1)
But critics claim that the Trump administration’s public promises to make a change don’t quite match up with the Trump family’s private business matters.
The Polymarket bet that's bringing all bets to the limelight
Prediction markets have taken the world by storm. They generated over $2 billion in total volume across major events in 2025, according to public Polymarket data, Forbes reported (2). Between January to October 2025, prediction-market trading exceeded $27.9 billion, according to Crypto.com (3).
Polymarket, alone, has over 700,000 users who are betting on everything from when Elon Musk will tweet next to decisions surrounding the war in Iran. (4) A New York Times investigation discovered an immense increase in betting on the U.S. strike on Iran on the day prior to the February 28 attack. At least 150 accounts placed hundreds of bets totaling $855,000 (5).
The Department of Justice (DOJ) filed charges against Van Dyke, a U.S. special forces soldier, for allegedly using his knowledge about Operation Absolute Resolve — the raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — to bet on Maduro's fate and, ultimately, win almost $400,000 on Polymarket.
The active-duty Army soldier, stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville, North Carolina, signed nondisclosure agreements in which he promised to "never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise … any classified or sensitive information" relating to military operations.
But Van Dyke, who was involved in both the planning and the execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, has been accused of "[betraying] his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain," FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr. said in a press release. (6)
According to the release, Van Dyke was charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. He was also charged with one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, as well as one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.
"Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain," Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche shared in the statement. "Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply." (6)
FBI Director Kash Patel added that "no one is above the law," claiming that the "FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation's secrets." (6)
Advertisement
"Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable," he stated.
But critics claim not everyone has, in fact, been held accountable.
They argue that insider trading runs rampant, and the rules and regulations that prohibit the use of insider insights to place bets should be applied and enforced across the board.
Must Read
- Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — are you doing the same?
- Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's how
- Robert Kiyosaki says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year and begs investors not to miss this ‘explosion’
Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.
The bigger political picture behind the bet on Maduro
Air Force veteran serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 13th congressional district, Anna Paulina Luna, has called on Trump to pardon Van Dyke.
"Maybe not a popular take, but I'm calling for this guy to be pardoned," she wrote on X. "Unless the DOJ plans on going after all the crooks in Congress currently insider trading, this is simply skewed justice. There is no 'justice' when guys like this get the book thrown at him, yet members are illegally profiting every day." (7)
She added that, while she doesn't agree with Van Dyke's alleged betting behavior and believes that "he should be required to disgorge all the profits," she also wants to see the DOJ "doing Congress next."
Prediction markets are a Trump family business and have been for quite some time.
"Many other countries are doing it and, like usual, the U.S. is just missing out," Forbes quoted Trump saying about the rise of internet gambling back in 2011. (8)
Flash forward 15 years, Polymarket Shayne Coplan told CBS News' Anderson Cooper (9): "This admin is very pro-innovation, and pro-crypto, and pro-Polymarket, which is amazing."
Advertisement
In July last year, the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dropped a Biden-era probe into whether or not Polymarket was accepting bets from people in the United States, where it was then banned, and functioning as an "unregistered derivatives exchange." (10)
The CFTC's Trump-appointed chair, Michael Selig, argued that prediction markets are financial markets, not gambling sites and, therefore, should be federally regulated and not subject to state-level gambling laws (11).
In November 2025, the CFTC granted Polymarket an Amended Order of Designation. The decision allows the platform to function as an "intermediated contract market," so it can directly onboard U.S. customers. (12)
Earlier this month, the DOJ and the CFTC filed suit against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois over efforts to regulate prediction-market platforms like Polymarket. (13)
The juxtaposition between Trump's public comments and his family's private business
Polymarket posted on X, sharing that it the company is working to combat crime on its site.
"Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading," the company posted. "When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ and cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket." (14)
Trump told reporters that he, too, would "look into" the regulations and federal employee use of nonpublic information to bet on prediction markets like Polymarket — of which his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor. Trump Jr. is also a strategic adviser to Kalshi, Polymarket's top competitor.
Trump statements that "betting things," ironically, aren't quite his thing, come just months after Trump Media announced it would be making prediction markets available on Truth Social via an exclusive partnership with Crypto.com. (15) The arrangement will allow users to engage in prediction markets and harness the social media platform to unpack their predictions.
Advertisement
Before he was sworn into office, Trump transferred his majority shares in the company into a revocable trust; Trump Jr., is the sole trustee.
Representative Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, asked Selig whether the Trump family "has a financial stake in how these prediction markets are regulated," arguing that it "smells like corruption." (16)
But the White House has denied all accusations.
"The President has no involvement in business deals that would implicate his constitutional responsibilities," White House Counsel David Warrington told The New York Times. "President Trump performs his constitutional duties in an ethically sound manner and to suggest otherwise is either ill-informed or malicious." (17)
A representative for Trump Jr. also said that he "does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets." (18)
The Trump family has emerged as a major financial beneficiary of the prediction market industry. Many others insiders have also been accused of routinely committing crimes — but devoid of the consequences that Van Dyke is currently facing.
The charges against Van Dyke are the first major legal action taken against an American suspected of insider trading on such markets. But there are allegedly "hundreds or thousands" of active inquiries about accounts that have largely been inactive but continue to amass major profits from suspiciously well-timed bets.
Selig has promised that the CFTC has a "zero tolerance policy" for insider trading: "We will find you, and the full force of the law will come to bear."
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
NBC News (1); Forbes (2),(8); Crypto.com (3),(15); Token Terminal (4); The New York Times (5),(17); U.S. Department of Justice (6); X (7),(11),(14); CBS News (9); CNBC (10); The Bulldog Law (12); Reuters (13); YouTube (16); PBS (18)
You May Also Like
- Turning 50 with $0 saved for retirement? Most people don’t realize they’re actually just entering their prime earning decade. Here are 6 ways to catch up fast
- Inside a $1B real estate fund offering access to thousands of income-producing rental properties — with flexible minimums starting at $10
- Vanguard’s outlook on U.S. stocks is raising alarm bells for retirees. Here’s why and how to protect yourself
- Here are 5 easy ways to own multiple properties like Bezos and Beyoncé. You can start with $10 (and no, you don’t have to manage a single thing)
AnnaMarie is a weekend editor for Moneywise.
