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On the left, Donald Trump, and on the right, Peter Schiff. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images

Even Trump's loyal supporters don't expect to get $5K checks after the midterms — and Peter Schiff says you should be relieved

With the midterm elections drawing near, Donald Trump has been busy on the campaign trail, bringing his famous rallies to select cities as he tries to drum up support for the Republican Party. But his efforts to keep both the House of Representatives and the Senate in Republican control stretch much further than his fiery speeches.

During the Republican party’s first-ever midterm convention in early September, Trump promised to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterm elections, but even some of his biggest fans say they don’t expect a check to arrive in the mail.

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“I really don’t care,” Jamie Alvarez, who recently attended one of Trump’s rallies, told the Associated Press. ”I don’t feel like your vote should be bought. I feel like you should vote for who you feel is going to do the best job.”

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Amy Frederiksen, who was the first female majority leader in the Minnesota State Senate, believes Trump has lost the trust of the American people, including many of his fans.

“The trust on this is already gone for most people,” Frederiksen told the Associated Press. “I just don’t see the energy around that line. Most people know that’s a blatant over-the-top promise like several he’s made in the last couple of years, and they’re not buying it.”

Trump has reportedly acknowledged that the cost of issuing $5,000 checks to every American adult would exceed $1 trillion, but whether or not the White House has seriously considered the ramifications of such spending is not entirely clear.

What is clear, however — at least to economist Peter Schiff — is that such spending will almost certainly increase inflation and would have a massive impact on the American economy.

Schiff denounced Trump’s $5,000 ‘bribe’

Schiff, who serves as the chief economist and global strategist at Europac.com, warned that Trump’s $5,000 promise could be a catalyst that results in inflation unlike anything Americans have seen in a long time.

“Trump tried to buy the midterms by offering all voters a $5,000 bribe in exchange for their votes, provided they spend the cash in the U.S.,” he wrote on X in early September. “Since the Fed will have to print the money, the result would be massive inflation, well in excess of anything experienced under Biden.”

This isn’t the first time Schiff has criticized Trump’s plans to give away federal money. Schiff was an opponent to the Trump Accounts for kids, saying they were “nothing to celebrate” and those children would ultimately repay the seed money with interest. He has also spoken out against Trump’s tariffs and the current state of the Republican party, so his opposition to Trump’s $5,000 pledge that’s tied to election results isn’t surprising.

While Schiff also criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for clapping at Trump’s $5,000 promise, other government officials have quietly downplayed the move. Vice President J.D. Vance told the Associated Press the payments would not go to the wealthy and suggested they could be paid for by tariff revenues.

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That seems dubious, since the estimated $1.23 trillion it would take to cover Trump’s $5,000 payments substantially exceeds the total amount the U.S. has earned from tariffs so far, which stands at less than $400 billion.

That total cost for Trump’s $5,000 promise, incidentally, would exceed the budgets for Medicare and national defense — and would fall just 25% short of the cost of Social Security.

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Hurdles to fulfilling the promise

Schiff’s warnings about the inflationary impact of these payments (along with their legality) could all be moot, however.

Although some experts argued to the New York Times that the apparent bribe might be legal in a strict sense (or even considered protected speech under the First Amendment), Congress would have to approve the payments. That’s far from a sure thing, even if the Republicans win the midterms and retain control of both the House and Senate, as there was bipartisan opposition to the plan the moment it was announced.

In addition, Trump has promised or discussed stimulus checks before, which have failed to materialize. At the start of his second term, he floated the idea of DOGE dividend checks but nothing ever materialized. He later suggested a $2,000 tariff rebate, but that, too, dissipated and was never followed up on.

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Chris Morris Contributing Writer

Chris Morris is a US based veteran journalist with more than 35 years of experience at many of the biggest digital news outlets. In addition to his activities as a writer, reporter and editor, Chris is also a frequent moderator and speaker at major conferences, including CES and South by Southwest.

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