Jul 4, 2026
Polymarket is a platform that has proven people will bet their hard-earned money on absolutely anything, from whether Jesus Christ will return this year to whether a major cryptocurrency will be named after a sandwich.
But as whimsical as prediction markets can be, the sector is moving a very serious $24 billion a month; and it also has a darker side, from deceptive marketing and suspiciously high loss rates to wagers made with insider information.
Advertisement
It’s why legislators are wary of large political bets, like the one that landed U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with insider trading charges — or the $409,000 that one Polymarket user has just staked on Vladimir Putin losing power by year’s end.
Thanks for subscribing!
Read the best of Moneywise in 5 minutes or less.
By signing up, you accept Moneywise Terms of Use, Subscription Agreement, and Privacy Policy.
Polymarket user bets of end of Putin reign
According to Forbes and NBC News, the anonymous Polymarket bettor, who has a Ukrainian flag as their profile icon and only joined Polymarket a few months ago, has put money on various predictions pertaining to Russia and Ukraine.
But this one is their largest, and could win them a jaw-dropping $2.5 million (at estimated 12% odds) if the Russian leader is ousted, steps down, or somehow otherwise falls out of power by the time 2026 is over.
The next presidential election in Russia isn’t until 2030, though there will be an election this September to determine regional leaders, as well as who will serve on the nation’s legislature, the State Duma.
Must Read
- The ultra-rich use these 5 real estate strategies to build wealth while they sleep — you can start with just $100
- Here’s the average income of Americans by age in 2026. Are you keeping up or falling behind?
- Insurance companies profit most from drivers who auto-renew without shopping around. Comparing 100+ quotes takes 2 minutes and costs nothing
Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.
Growing calls for increased regulation
Along with the aforementioned case of soldier Van Dyke — who placed a Polymarket bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro being deposed, using classified knowledge of the US’s then-forthcoming military operation in the country — there have been many other concerns of potential insider trading, including by political candidates.
Three congressional candidates were banned from predictions website Kalshi after they were found to have bet on their own elections. Numerous other potentially malfeasant bets related to American political and/or military matters have also come under investigation this year.
While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission governs the industry, Multiple bills in Congress, including the PREDICT Act and Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, aim to address nefarious use of the platforms and introduce more oversight. The commission is also working on creating better guardrails, including bans on contracts that are against public interest, such as those related to terrorism or war.
Forbes notes that “it’s unclear if the Putin bet would fall under this public interest ban.” It is also, of course, impossible to tell at this point whether the bettor has some sort of confidential information, like Van Dyke did.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction market companies are presently in the midst of a flurry of legal action, much of it from various states that allege the firms are operating as illegal gambling businesses or aren’t compliant with consumer protections and state gambling laws. Some have sought cease-and-desist orders, while others have attempted to impose excise taxes on prediction market transaction fees.
You May Also Like
- JP Morgan sees gold hitting $6,000/oz before 2027 — and a Gold IRA lets you hold the physical metal while deferring the tax bill. Get your free guide from Priority Gold
- Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and the simple steps to fix it ASAP
- Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can now become a landlord for as little as $100 — and no, you don't have to deal with tenants or fix freezers. Here's how
- Millionaires under 43 are reshaping investing — just 25% of their portfolios are in stocks. Here’s where their money is going
Becky Robertson is a senior staff reporter at Moneywise and a lifelong writer. Along with more than a decade covering news at outlets like blogTO and Quill & Quire, she's attended writing residencies around the world. With 33 countries visited, she finds travel to be among her greatest inspirations.
