A mystery bettor just dropped $400K on Putin’s ouster by the end of 2026 — as scrutiny over geopolitical events on prediction markets intensifies

It’s why legislators are wary of large political bets, like the one that landed U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with insider trading charges — or the $409,000 that one Polymarket user has just staked on Vladimir Putin losing power by year’s end.

Polymarket user bets of end of Putin reign

According to Forbes and NBC News, the anonymous Polymarket bettor, who has a Ukrainian flag as their profile icon and only joined Polymarket a few months ago, has put money on various predictions pertaining to Russia and Ukraine.

But this one is their largest, and could win them a jaw-dropping $2.5 million (at estimated 12% odds) if the Russian leader is ousted, steps down, or somehow otherwise falls out of power by the time 2026 is over.

The next presidential election in Russia isn’t until 2030, though there will be an election this September to determine regional leaders, as well as who will serve on the nation’s legislature, the State Duma.

Growing calls for increased regulation

Along with the aforementioned case of soldier Van Dyke — who placed a Polymarket bet on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro being deposed, using classified knowledge of the US’s then-forthcoming military operation in the country — there have been many other concerns of potential insider trading, including by political candidates.

Three congressional candidates were banned from predictions website Kalshi after they were found to have bet on their own elections. Numerous other potentially malfeasant bets related to American political and/or military matters have also come under investigation this year.

While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission governs the industry, Multiple bills in Congress, including the PREDICT Act and Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, aim to address nefarious use of the platforms and introduce more oversight. The commission is also working on creating better guardrails, including bans on contracts that are against public interest, such as those related to terrorism or war.

Forbes notes that “it’s unclear if the Putin bet would fall under this public interest ban.” It is also, of course, impossible to tell at this point whether the bettor has some sort of confidential information, like Van Dyke did.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, Kalshi and other prediction market companies are presently in the midst of a flurry of legal action, much of it from various states that allege the firms are operating as illegal gambling businesses or aren’t compliant with consumer protections and state gambling laws. Some have sought cease-and-desist orders, while others have attempted to impose excise taxes on prediction market transaction fees.