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President Donald Trump talks to the media before boarding Marine One as he departs from the South Lawn of the White House in Washington. Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images

Most Obamacare $500 rebate checks are going to states that are midterm political battlegrounds

The Trump administration has given one-time $500 refund payments to just under 1 million Americans it says were overcharged excess Obamacare fees under the Biden administration. The payments did not go out nationwide — and Reuters found most of the qualifying states are midterm political battlegrounds.

According to Reuters, about 71% of the payments were sent to just 13 states. That includes eight of the nine U.S. Senate races that are regarded as the most competitive, as well as 10 of the 12 most competitive governors’ races.

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Democratic candidates are now calling the payments an attempt to sway voters ahead of the November 3 election.

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The refund

The Trump administration began sending out the $500 checks at the start of October. The White House says the money is meant to repay Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrollees, who were overcharged when President Joe Biden was in office. The Trump administration has also claimed Biden accumulated a significant surplus by charging “user fees” that were passed onto consumers.

“That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now, I am returning it to you!” Trump wrote in a letter sent to recipients on Thursday, according to Reuters.

More than 950,000 Americans were slated to receive the checks in the 30 states that do not operate their own ACA insurance plan exchanges. But according to Reuters, the majority of $339 million is going to people living in 13 politically significant states.

For example, New Hampshire has competitive races for Senate, governor and one of its two U.S. House seats, Reuters reported. Around 28,400 residents will receive the checks, around 2% of the state’s population.

“Voters aren’t looking for Donald Trump to cut them a check,” said Chris Pappas, New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate ​nominee, according to Reuters. “They just want him to understand that affordability isn’t a hoax and that their lives are getting more expensive.”

The White House did not respond to Moneywise’s request for comment regarding accusations that they are trying to influence the election.

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Trump’s midterm pleas

This isn’t the first time Trump has allegedly waved checks in the faces of voters — and he’s also not the first president to use the tactic. Trump has vowed to give every American adult a $5,000 check if his party retains control of Congress in November.

“If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America $5,000,” Trump said in a Truth Social video post Saturday.

The president made the same pledge in September during the Republican National Committee’s first midterm convention.

The promise is a lofty one. The president has yet to explain how he plans to fund these “Trump dividends,” which would cost the U.S. roughly $1.2 trillion. The checks would also require congressional approval, a potential challenge since some Republicans have already voiced concern about their economic impact.

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The trend stretches back to Trump’s first term in office. Ahead of the 2020 election, the president promised 33 million Medicare beneficiaries $200 prescription-drug cards — a promise that never materialized.

According to Reuters, Biden used a similar tactic when campaigning in a Georgia runoff election in January 2021. Then President-elect Biden told voters they would get a $2,000 payment if they elected the Democratic candidate and won control of the Senate. The promise was partially fulfilled when Congress approved $1,400 payments as part of its COVID-19 relief package.

The effectiveness of these financial pleas is still unclear, but one expert told Reuters that the $500 checks could produce some Republican support.

“There are good reasons to expect ⁠that it could have some electoral effect, you know, and it might be worth a percentage point or two,” Cornell University professor Douglas Kriner said.

But Kriner says the move is unlikely to sway Democrat-leaning voters.

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Rinna Diamantakos Contributing Editor

Rinna Diamantakos is a contributing editor at Moneywise.com. A versatile journalist, she has experience as a writer, editor and producer. Her work has focused on politics, business and financial news.

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