Iran warns Americans will be 'nostalgic for $4-$5 gas' as US threatens Hormuz blockade — here's how to prepare your wallet

But, so far, Iran shows no signs of backing down, raising the risk that American consumers will get caught in the crossfire.

Shortly after Trump issued his threat, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf fired back, posting a map of gas stations near the White House on social media and writing: "Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called 'blockade', soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas" (2).

It didn't take long for this latest standoff to filter through to prices. On Monday, Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, surged beyond $100 a barrel, a closely watched psychological threshold that often signals rising cost pressures for consumers (3).

Are even higher gas prices in store?

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are nothing new. But what makes this moment different is where the pressure is being applied.

Previous conflicts largely targeted Iran's own oil exports. Now, the focus is on a narrow shipping lane that carries roughly 20% of the world's oil, including supplies from several other major producing countries (4).

Markets don't wait to see what happens. Even the threat of disruption can be enough to push prices higher as traders price in risk. That explains why Brent crude surged as soon as the latest escalation unfolded.

And the situation could worsen. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie warn that supply shortages could push a barrel of Brent up to $150 and perhaps even $200 in 2026 (5).

To put that into context, according to Charles Schwab, every sustained $10 increase in oil prices can add roughly 25 cents per gallon at the pump (6).

Why, you might be thinking, does a tightened global supply impact the U.S. if it produces a large share of its own oil? Because oil is a globally traded commodity, and the U.S. participates in that open market, exporting a significant portion of its domestic production to the highest bidder abroad.