Nov 6, 2024
They call it the Sunshine State but many seniors (and those about to join them) may be asking themselves whether the sun is rising or setting on Florida as a retirement destination.
To be sure, Florida boasts many attractions for those winding down from the daily grind. It posted an average temperature of 73.4 degrees F in 2023, well above what you’ll find in cities such as Chicago or Buffalo. It has no state income tax and 3,341 miles of total Atlantic coastline (compared to 45 miles of shoreline in Indiana and bupkis in landlocked Kansas).
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But prices in some pandemic boomtowns have fallen sharply.
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Realtor.com's September Housing Market Report reveals that out of ten metros where home prices dropped most year over year, four are in Florida. Miami took first place with a 12.4% decrease; Jacksonville finished sixth, off 6.1%; Orlando and Tampa took the eighth and ninth spots with 5.6% and 5.5% drops, respectively.
This follows a massive surge in prices during and after the pandemic. In April, the state’s population passed 23 million for the first time; in 2020, it was just above 21.5 million, U.S. Census Bureau figures show. “The influx of new residents drew builders to Florida who added inventory, which helped bring the median price down. However, in cities such as Miami, median list prices are still 50% higher than before the pandemic,” said the website.
The data for this report was collected before hurricanes Helene and Milton ripped through the state, but one could make the argument that plummeting prices are also linked to climate change, which has made Florida an increasingly risky place to live and sent the cost of home insurance through the roof. Even before Helene made landfall, Floridians had faced eight weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion in 2024. Recent reports have shown that residents are now cutting their losses and selling their flood-damaged homes “as is” to investors.
So should retirees jump at the chance to leverage lower home prices? Let’s shine some light on both sides of the argument.
Time to buy while the sun shines?
Florida’s real estate prices have trended up-up-upward for some time — even prior to the pandemic. So the notion that late 2024 represents a FOMO homeowner moment isn’t exactly misplaced.
A 2024 study by Clever Real Estate found that of the 50 largest U.S. metros, Miami has seen the sharpest spike in home prices since 2000. The typical house in Miami was 4x more expensive at the time of publication ($472,711) than it was in 2000.
And in its analysis of 2022 census data, SmartAsset ranked three Florida cities – St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Cape Coral – in the top 12 for net inflows of retirees.
Thus it's arguable that for retirees on a fixed income, buying now could free up money to live on with prices finally falling. Especially if you’ve got equity to cash in by selling a home elsewhere, it will go further on a Florida property now than just a year ago.
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Or the wrong real estate climate?
All that established, the devastating effects of climate change have washed up on Florida’s shores in 2024 like no other time in recorded weather history. The one-two punch of hurricanes Milton and Helene serves as a wake-up call for even the hardiest storm riders. Milton alone could result in losses of up to $100 billion for the global insurance industry, according to analyst estimates reported by Reuters.
And that statistic points to a grim reality of the Florida housing market: Homes have become borderline impossible to insure without paying steep prices. That is, if you can insure them in the first place. Dozens of insurance companies have either left the state or are in liquidation, and the six most expensive cities for coverage in the country are on Florida’s Atlantic coast — with Hialeah’s average annual premium of $17,606 topping the list compiled by Insurify in 2023.
Meanwhile, no climatologist or meteorologist will opine that all this weather-related trouble will get better. By 2050, Miami is projected to experience 89 days above 92.6 degrees, compared to just seven around 1990, according to the property risk assessment company ClimateCheck.
Yet construction of all kinds continues despite the dangers. In parts of the state, homeowners have taken up the bizarre practice of having their homes lifted an entire story instead of leaving them. And working with a climate-modeling firm, The Wall Street Journal found that Florida has built 77,000 new properties in high-risk flood areas since 2019, the most in the nation.
It remains open to debate what kind of future awaits retirees in Florida at the end of the day – but the risks are tremendous.
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Lou Carlozo is a freelance contributor to Moneywise.
