Florida now has 4 of the top 10 American cities where home prices are plummeting the most — is now the perfect time to retire down south? Or is it the riskiest time?

Time to buy while the sun shines?

Florida’s real estate prices have trended up-up-upward for some time — even prior to the pandemic. So the notion that late 2024 represents a FOMO homeowner moment isn’t exactly misplaced.

A 2024 study by Clever Real Estate found that of the 50 largest U.S. metros, Miami has seen the sharpest spike in home prices since 2000. The typical house in Miami was 4x more expensive at the time of publication ($472,711) than it was in 2000.

And in its analysis of 2022 census data, SmartAsset ranked three Florida cities – St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Cape Coral – in the top 12 for net inflows of retirees.

Thus it's arguable that for retirees on a fixed income, buying now could free up money to live on with prices finally falling. Especially if you’ve got equity to cash in by selling a home elsewhere, it will go further on a Florida property now than just a year ago.

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Or the wrong real estate climate?

All that established, the devastating effects of climate change have washed up on Florida’s shores in 2024 like no other time in recorded weather history. The one-two punch of hurricanes Milton and Helene serves as a wake-up call for even the hardiest storm riders. Milton alone could result in losses of up to $100 billion for the global insurance industry, according to analyst estimates reported by Reuters.

And that statistic points to a grim reality of the Florida housing market: Homes have become borderline impossible to insure without paying steep prices. That is, if you can insure them in the first place. Dozens of insurance companies have either left the state or are in liquidation, and the six most expensive cities for coverage in the country are on Florida’s Atlantic coast — with Hialeah’s average annual premium of $17,606 topping the list compiled by Insurify in 2023.

Meanwhile, no climatologist or meteorologist will opine that all this weather-related trouble will get better. By 2050, Miami is projected to experience 89 days above 92.6 degrees, compared to just seven around 1990, according to the property risk assessment company ClimateCheck.

Yet construction of all kinds continues despite the dangers. In parts of the state, homeowners have taken up the bizarre practice of having their homes lifted an entire story instead of leaving them. And working with a climate-modeling firm, The Wall Street Journal found that Florida has built 77,000 new properties in high-risk flood areas since 2019, the most in the nation.

It remains open to debate what kind of future awaits retirees in Florida at the end of the day – but the risks are tremendous.