May 31, 2026
At a White House business roundtable on Dec. 10, 2025, President Donald Trump singled out IBM (NYSE:IBM) chief executive Arvind Krishna, who was in the room. He called Krishna "a legend" and credited him with taking the company's stock "from a rather low price to a very nice price," then added: "I won't say high because I'm sure you're going to say it's going to go up a lot more, right?" (1)
The clip resurfaced and spread widely in late May 2026, often stripped of that context and framed as breaking news. The reason: a newly announced IBM partnership with the government.
IBM's $1 billion government quantum award
On May 21, 2026, IBM and the US Department of Commerce announced a proposed $1 billion CHIPS Act award to build America's first purpose-built quantum chip foundry — a new standalone IBM company called Anderon, headquartered in Albany, New York. (2)
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The federal money is a proposed incentive, not cash already in hand, and IBM is matching it with $1 billion of its own, plus intellectual property and workforce. (3) IBM's award was the largest slice of a broader $2.01 billion package the Commerce Department spread across nine companies. GlobalFoundries (NASDAQ:GFS) is in line for $375 million, with five firms — Atom Computing, D-Wave, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum — getting $100 million each, Rigetti up to $100 million and Diraq $38 million. In exchange, the government takes minority, non-controlling equity stakes rather than handing out subsidies. (3)
IBM's announcement disclosed no equity stake for Anderon — unlike GlobalFoundries, which confirmed a 1% government stake in its spinoff, or Intel, whose CHIPS award the administration converted into a roughly 10% stake last year. (4)
Investors responded. IBM shares closed up about 12% on May 21, the stock's biggest single-day gain since January 2025. (5) The rally extended through the following week after IBM detailed plans to invest more than $10 billion in quantum computing over five years and a separate $5 billion Red Hat cybersecurity push, carrying the stock to $297.80 by the May 29 close — a weekly gain of roughly 13%. (6)
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Trump's trust has been trading IBM
According to Trump's Q1 2026 periodic transaction report, filed with the US Office of Government Ethics on May 8, IBM appears among the holdings — not as a single headline-grabbing buy, but as part of routine, two-way trading activity. (7)
The filing lists eight IBM transactions between February and March 2026: four purchases and four sales, every one in the two smallest reporting bands, from $1,001 to $50,000. Two of the purchases carry an "unsolicited" tag, meaning the trade was placed by a money manager without the filer's direction. They sit among thousands of transactions across hundreds of companies — the signature of a broad, actively managed portfolio rather than a targeted bet.
The trust was buying and selling IBM in the same window, including a sale in March. The White House has said Trump's assets are managed by his children, and presidents are not barred from holding or trading stocks while in office, though Trump did not divest or set up a blind trust with an independent overseer. No improper timing is alleged here, and the broad reporting bands make precise conclusions impossible. The trading ran in both directions.
IBM stock forecast: where analysts see it going
The consensus rating sits at "buy" across roughly two dozen analysts. But the average 12-month price target near $278 sits below the recent $298 close. The spread is wide, running from a low of $195 to a high of $335. (8)
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The bull case rests on the AI and quantum story. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated an "outperform" rating with a $320 target on May 29, naming IBM one of his top software picks as enterprise AI adoption accelerates. (9)
The bears focus on valuation. UBS maintains a "sell" with a $200 target, and at least one valuation model flags the stock as roughly 20% overvalued at current levels. (8)
Intel's run after its own federal investment showed how government backing can reshape investor psychology faster than fundamentals justify. Whether IBM's quantum windfall translates into durable returns or is just a sentiment-driven pop is the open question.
Author’s note: I do not currently have stakes in any of the companies mentioned.
Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Senate Democrats (1); IBM Newsroom (2); NIST (3); Tom's Hardware (4); CNBC (5); StockAnalysis (6); U.S. Office of Government Ethics (7); StockAnalysis (8); GuruFocus (9)
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Rudro is an Editor with Moneywise. His work has appeared on Yahoo Finance, MSN, MSN Money, Apple News, Samsung News and the San Diego Union Tribune.
