Tesla could crash 60%, JPMorgan warns with 'high caution' — but betting against the 'Musk premium' has burned investors before

Brinkman's case boils down to a widening disconnect between Tesla's stock price and its actual financial performance. Since mid-2022, when consensus delivery forecasts peaked, Wall Street's projections for Tesla's revenue and earnings have continued to decline, yet the stock has climbed roughly 50% over the same period. The bank also cut its full-year 2026 EPS estimate from $2.00 to $1.80, now below the Street consensus of $1.95.

The headwinds keep stacking up

The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit removed a key demand lever in Tesla's most profitable market, Chinese competition continues to compress global share, and brand damage from Musk's political activities remains difficult to quantify but clearly felt (4). European registrations fell by as much as 49% in early 2026 across some markets, partially attributed to consumer backlash against Musk's political involvement (5).

And then there's the cash question. Tesla announced $20 billion in planned capital expenditures for 2026 to fund Cybercab, Semi and Optimus, roughly $11 billion to $12 billion more than it spent last year, at a time when its regulatory credit revenue is fading (1).

The case for caution about the caution

But here's the thing: betting against Tesla has been one of the most painful trades in market history.

As of early 2024, Tesla short sellers had accumulated a net loss of $61.8 billion, according to S3 Partners data (6). In 2023 alone, shorts lost a combined $12.2 billion as Tesla shares more than doubled (6). And after the 2024 presidential election, hedge funds holding short positions took an on-paper hit of at least $5.2 billion as shares surged on Musk's political ties (7).

Musk himself has been trolling bears for years, at one point predicting a "short burn of the century" in a May 2018 tweet, a rally that torched short sellers roughly 18 months later.

But Tesla bulls aren't buying a car company. They're buying robotaxis, humanoid robots and energy storage. None of these things generate meaningful revenue yet, but all of them carry enormous implied value in the stock price. As Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said to Yahoo Finance: to be truly bearish on Tesla, you need a credible thesis for why the company will fail at robotaxis and robotics, and JPMorgan's note didn't provide one. (8)

If Musk's SpaceX IPO generates the kind of investor enthusiasm some expect, it could easily reignite the "Musk premium" that props up Tesla's valuation. And there's already speculation that Musk could eventually merge Tesla with SpaceX, a move a former Tesla president says has better than even odds. Of course, not everyone thinks a deeper entanglement with Musk's empire is a good thing. Michael Burry, the Big Short investor, has flagged SpaceX 401(k) investments as a potential concern, calling everyday investors "exit liquidity" for insiders.

Of the 54 analysts covering Tesla, only 10 carry a negative rating on the stock (1). JPMorgan may be right on the fundamentals, but betting against Elon Musk has a long history of looking smart right up until it doesn't.

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Article sources

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CNBC (1); Tesla Investor Relations (2); TipRanks (3); Electrek (4); CBS News (5); CNN Business (6); Fortune (7); Yahoo Finance (8)