The administration has been under pressure to do something about continuing food price inflation, which Trump said he would solve by bringing grocery prices “tumbling down” back when he was a candidate (4). Though Trump’s tariffs on Brazil, Mexico and other producers of imported foods aren’t the only reason prices at the grocery store have continued to rise, it is one lever he can pull to try and stem the tide.
What food items might see price stabilization?
The list of exempted food items include many staples on Americans’ tables:
- Coffee and tea
- Tropical fruits and fruit juices
- Cocoa and spices
- Bananas, oranges, and tomatoes
- Beef
Tariffs on imported liquors including scotch, wine and cognac and imported beer will remain, however (5). Tomatoes from Mexico were not included in the exemption and are still subject to a 17% tariff negotiated in July.
The effect of this move on food prices will vary based on several factors. Daniel A. Sumner, a professor of economics at UC Davis specializing in agricultural economics, says imported products like bananas that don’t require a lot of processing are most likely to see the biggest price declines (6).
Many food items may not see prices come down to where they were a year ago, or even six months ago, because reducing inflation is not the same thing as reducing prices. Inflation is a rate of growth: Even if it drops to zero, the price you’re paying today will continue to be the price going forward.
Many other food items that require processing have other tariff costs baked into their prices. For example, canned fruits and vegetables are still affected by aluminum tariffs that increase the price of the cans, and therefore the final product. And remaining tariffs on the goods needed to bring the food to your local store, like automobile parts for trucks, mean inflation could continue (7).
Though increases in the price of eggs, which was a major talking point in 2024, has moderated, but steak and ground beef have seen eye-watering price increases in 2025, including a 12.9% increase over the past year for ground beef, 16.6% for uncooked steaks and a whopping 18.4% for uncooked beef roasts since 2024 (8).
