'Sends shivers down your spine’: Farmers sound alarm as fertilizer prices surge 30%, and it could hit wallets far beyond the fields next. Here's why

“It sends shivers down your spine,” said David Altrogge, a farmer in Saskatchewan, Canada, whose broker told him a local supplier had stopped offering prices altogether due to the shortage.

The strain is already showing up in global pricing dynamics, too. Josh Linville, the vice president of fertilizer at financial service provider StoneX, said prices in New Orleans are running as much as $119 per metric ton below global levels.

“Not only am I worried about incoming vessels being turned around to other, better-paying destinations,” Linville said, “there's an argument to be made, if somebody was willing to go and buy up (supply on) barges, to load them onto a vessel and export it.”

In other words, fertilizer could be redirected to higher-paying markets outside of the U.S. — and with ships stopped in the Strait of Hormuz, even small disruptions can send prices surging as the planting season begins.

But this isn’t just a farming story. It’s an early signal of broader economic strain — one that could show up in grocery bills, consumer confidence and even how markets behave.

A critical supply chain breakdown at the worst time

Fertilizer is one of the top inputs in modern agriculture, and there’s no easy substitute.

The current disruption is hitting from multiple angles. With the Strait of Hormuz closed due to the war in the Gulf, the world has lost one of its most prominent shipping corridors.

At the same time, production is also being affected by higher energy costs, since many fertilizers rely on natural gas as a key input.

Timing makes the situation even more precarious. Spring planting sets the tone for the entire growing season — but the window is short. Farmers can’t afford to wait for prices to normalize. They have to plant now, regardless of cost. People need to eat.

That leaves farmers with a difficult choice: Pay significantly more for fertilizer or cut back on usage.

Neither is ideal. Both have consequences.

Rising input costs on farms set up rising costs at the table

High fertilizer prices don’t stay on the farm: They continue down the food supply chain and onto dinner plates.

When farmers pay more to grow crops, those increases show up later as higher food prices. Add rising diesel costs for transportation and logistics, and budgets can quickly tighten at home (2).

Some economists warn that the war will trigger a second wave of inflation, this time driven by food. This could be on top of rising grocery costs, which were up 2.4% over the past year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data (3).

“Higher fertilizer costs will certainly contribute to higher prices at U.S. supermarkets,” said Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP (4).

The agriculture industry was already under pressure. Crop prices were low, meaning farmers aren’t earning much, while costs for fuel, equipment and other essentials kept climbing.

The warning signs are showing up across the economy

The fertilizer crunch is just one piece of a broader pattern.

Consumer sentiment is already weakening. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 this month, down from 56.6 in February (5). While expectations had initially improved, sentiment dropped following the escalation in geopolitical tensions.

“A broad swath of consumers across incomes, age and political affiliation all reported declines in expectations for their personal finances,” Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers, said.

At the same time, energy prices are rising. Electricity costs are up nearly 5% over the past year, while natural gas prices have jumped more than 10%, according to Consumer Price Index data.

Put together, these trends point toward a familiar, and uncomfortable, combination: Slowing growth alongside persistent inflation.

For most Americans, that means higher grocery bills.

But for investors, it raises a different question. What happens when the forces driving inflation aren’t demand, but disruption?

Shocks like this don’t just push prices higher. They can change how markets behave, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (6).

What this means for your investments

Most investment portfolios are built on a few key assumptions: That supply chains function smoothly, inflation moves gradually, and stocks and bonds help offset each other’s risks.

But when supply disruptions drive inflation, it doesn’t rise steadily or predictably.

It spikes.

According to the Fed, that’s bad for bonds, which tend to lose value as inflation climbs. At the same time, higher costs and weaker demand can pressure corporate earnings, weighing on stocks.

The result is that assets designed to diversify risk can start moving in the same direction: down. However, diversification doesn’t always work the way investors expect.

Look beyond stocks and bonds for protection

The fertilizer crisis shows how geopolitical shocks ripple through the economy — and push investors beyond traditional assets.

This includes, in some cases, moving away from the traditional mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds towards an increasing focus on alternative assets.

Gold as a hedge

Unlike stocks or bonds, gold isn’t tied to corporate earnings or interest rate cycles. It has historically been used as a store of value during periods of economic instability and currency volatility.

It also can’t be printed at will like fiat currency, and saw a banner year in 2025 — climbing by more than 65% year-over-year, despite recent pullbacks.

If investing in gold as a hedge sounds appealing, Priority Gold, an industry leader in precious metals, could help by offering the physical delivery of gold and silver.

Depending on your portfolio, this could mean picking up physical bars and coins for storage or diversifying your retirement accounts. If you’d like to convert an existing IRA into a gold IRA, Priority Gold offers 100% free rollover, as well as free shipping and free storage for up to five years.

Qualifying purchases can also receive up to $10,000 in free silver.

But making the move to gold can be a big decision. That’s why Priority Gold provides a free 2026 gold investor bundle so you can learn more before you commit.

Just remember that gold is often best used as one part of an otherwise well-diversified portfolio.

Real estate for income and inflation resilience

As input costs rise across the economy, assets with built-in pricing power tend to stand out. Real estate is one of them.

When the cost of living increases, rents often follow, according to research by the JPMorganChase Institute (7). That makes income-producing properties one of the few asset classes that can adjust to inflation while remaining less tied to daily market swings.

Blue-chip real estate investing

Rental properties have long been a proven source of steady, passive income for high-net-worth investors.

It’s no wonder that real estate accounts for nearly 25% of the typical family office portfolio, according to real estate consultancy firm Knight Frank (8). However, the time, effort, and money required to manage and maintain multiple properties deter many from investing.

So, unless you’re a hedge fund titan or an oil baron, you’ve likely been shut out of one of the most profitable corners of the market.

That’s where mogul comes in. This real estate investment platform offers fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties, which gives investors monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 a.m. tenant calls.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the mogul team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. Simply put, you can invest in institutional-quality offerings at a fraction of the usual cost.

Each property undergoes a vetting process that requires a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual IRR of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10 to 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours, with investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property.

Getting started is quick and easy. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

Hands-off rental property ownership

Owning a rental property sounds great, until something goes wrong. One bounced check, and your rental income disappears.