Bessent added that “prices will come down” once the war with Iran ends. Since the U.S. launched the war alongside Israel in February, another wave of inflation has washed over the U.S. economy due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway of oil and other energy supplies. Notably, it led to a spike in the cost of gasoline, among the most visible and unavoidable expenses for Americans.
As of Wednesday, the national average for a gallon of gas registered at $4.12, according to AAA. After falling much of the spring, gas prices shot up again as Western nations drew down emergency oil stockpiles and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually frozen. Progress towards a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran is halting, at best.
Ukraine and gas prices
Bessent’s remarks drew swift criticism from one former senior Ukrainian official.
“The war in Iran has had significantly more impact on the global energy market than Ukrainian strikes diminishing Russia’s capacity to wage a war of aggression against Ukraine,” Anton Gerashchenko, Ukraine’s ex-Internal Affairs Minister, wrote on X.
Experts broadly agree that current inflation can be attributed to the halt of oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global oil supply shipping each year. In recent months, Ukraine has stepped up its long-range attacks on targets deep inside Russia that include oil refineries and fuel depots.
Russia produced 9.2 million barrels of oil per day in 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, Western sanctions have been in effect against Russia’s energy sector since late 2022 and those measures included a ban on oil and petroleum exports from Moscow. Those were designed to punish the Russian government by choking off oil revenue.
By comparison, Ukraine’s daily crude output stood at 7,100 barrels per day — a fraction of previous daily production of 61,500 barrels per day in 2021, a year before the Russian invasion. Far more investors are paying closer attention to the U.S. war against Iran for any sign of a resolution that leads to inflation leveling off.
Trump’s latest moves for lower gas prices
Last week, the Trump administration announced a major oil agreement with Venezuela, almost eight months after U.S. special forces captured its leader Nicolas Maduro. The interim Venezuelan government signed onto a deal allowing a U.S. state-backed oil company to drill in 17 oil fields said to possess 65 billion barrels of crude. The U.S. government would then enjoy privileged access to the ensuing production and be able to purchase crude at favorable prices.
However, the unusual arrangement isn’t likely to get off the ground anytime soon, so it’s not likely to lead to savings at the gas pump for drivers in the near future. Oil executives and energy analysts alike have expressed skepticism around how a Venezuelan government widely viewed as illegitimate can be a trustworthy partner and implement the agreement, formally laid out by the White House on Monday.
That isn’t stopping Trump’s lieutenants from touting the deal as a boon to the U.S. economy. “President Trump’s energy diplomacy is delivering results — advancing new energy deals, opening the door for American companies, and strengthening energy security across our hemisphere,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an X post.
Joseph Zeballos-Roig is a policy and politics journalist based in Washington D.C with a focus on economics. He is experienced in connecting the significance of events in the capital to the lives of everyday Americans whether its taxes, tariffs, interest rates or federal programs.
