'It's always on the table': Ontario says 25% energy surcharge over Trump tariffs still a possibility — how Michigan, New York and Minnesota responded to the threat to hit US power bills

So how would this surcharge on electricity exported to the U.S. hurt customers? We look at the facts and how officials have responded.

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on the energy trade

Ontario currently exports electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota. Between 2021 and 2023, the province exported 14.6, 14.2 and 12.0 terawatt hours of electricity, respectively, to those states, according to the Ontario government.

"It made economic sense to build these transmission lines and to move power back and forth across the border," Cy McGeady, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NPR. "If you disrupt that, the impact has to be upward pressure on prices and reduced reliability. That's what the fundamental risk is here."

Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — which oversees electricity management for 15 states, including Michigan — said that in 2024 only 1% of its energy came from Canada and less than half of that came from Ontario.

“Even though there’s a fair amount of electricity that moves through Michigan originating in Canada, very little of it is actually purchased by Michigan,” Dan Scripps, chair of the Michigan Public Service Commission, told Local 4 News.

Still, Scripps said that if Ford were to cut off electricity to the U.S., it would remove a layer of resilience, making the grid more vulnerable. “We saw what happens when those flows get disrupted, and then other things go wrong, back in 2003 with the blackout that covered New York City and all the way into Detroit and Ann Arbor,” he said.

“The first victims of Trump’s Trade war? Minnesotans struggling to pay their skyrocketing electric bill,” Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said on X. “Minnesotans cannot afford Trump’s billionaire-run economy. We have to put a stop to this madness.”

The fact is Minnesota utilities would only be minimally affected by the Ontario tariffs, but Minnesota Power does source 11% of its power supply from the province of Manitoba.

“The Ontario thing is a symptom, not the broader disease,” said Pete Wyckoff, a deputy commissioner for Walz’s Department of Commerce, to the Minnesota Star Tribune. “In a broader trade war with Canada that includes energy, Minnesota would be a huge loser because of our dependencies.”

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) said in a statement that a surcharge could ripple through the industry, leading to increasing costs and grid reliability issues.

“The U.S. and Canada have one of the most integrated electric grids in the world, allowing system operators in both countries to pool resources for improved reliability and economic efficiency,” it said. “The NYISO and neighboring system operators have serious concerns that applying export tariffs to electricity may have serious adverse effects on reliability and wholesale electric markets.”