Mar 28, 2026
The Iran war has been ongoing for nearly four weeks with no clear end in sight and with oil prices hovering above $100 a barrel, many Americans are feeling the impact when they fill up their car or get their home heating bill.
This week, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, shared his view on the Iran war and its impact on the global economy with the BBC.
Advertisement
When asked for his thoughts on the current conflict, Fink revealed that he sees it going one of two ways: the war ending and bringing oil prices down or the war continuing with an unchanged regime that keeps oil prices high for years to come.
The national average for a gallon of regular gas has climbed to nearly $4 according to AAA (1) — up more than a dollar in March alone and 27% higher than a year ago.
"I could paint a scenario where I could see, a year from now, oil at $40 a barrel," Fink described (2). "I could see it above $150. We have two very extreme outcomes." He went on to explain that there's not going to be an outcome somewhere in the middle.
Best-case scenario
In scenario one, the war would come to an end and Iran would become a part of the world community. They would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, release their oil and oil prices would go down.
Using the EIA's rule of thumb that every $1 change in oil prices translates to roughly 2.4 cents per gallon at the pump (3), Fink's $40-a-barrel scenario could mean gas prices dropping to around $2.40 — levels not seen since the pandemic recovery in early 2021.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil supply, has caused the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market according to the International Energy Agency (4). Reopening this vital passageway is key for both the resolution of this conflict and the economy.
What it comes down to, according to Fink, is whether Iran can be accepted by the international community. "Can Iran be a country that participates in the world again? Can Iran be a country in which they are peacefully working side by side across the Persian Gulf with the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council]?" he said. "That is one very big outcome."
Advertisement
Fink admits that no one knows what will happen while he brings a potential, albeit optimistic, viewpoint that there could be a promising result for the global economy if Iran can become a welcomed part of the world.
"If that outcome occurred then you'd have the Iranian oil back into the marketplace alongside with the growth of the Venezuelan oil and you could paint a picture where oil prices could be lower than where they were prior to the Iranian war."
This would be a best-case scenario for the global economy, including the United States.
Must Read
- Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake — here’s what it is and the simple steps to fix it ASAP
- Robert Kiyosaki begs investors not to miss this ‘explosion’ — says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year
- Vanguard reveals what could be coming for U.S. stocks, and it’s raising alarm bells for retirees. Here’s why and how to protect yourself
Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. Subscribe now.
Worst-case scenario
On the opposite side is scenario two, where the war and/or current regime would continue to directly impact oil prices and keep them high for years to come.
Fink warns that "if Iran wants to continue to be an exporter of fear, then that's a very different outcome."
Advertisement
At $150 a barrel, that same math suggests gas prices could push past $5 a gallon nationally — territory only a handful of states like California and Hawaii have seen so far. Oil prices don't just hit drivers at the pump, either. Diesel fuels the trucks that stock grocery shelves and natural gas and petroleum are key inputs in fertilizer production. When energy costs climb, food prices tend to follow — and at $150 a barrel, that pressure would be felt on everything from eggs to bread.
"I would argue," Fink explained, "that we could have years, you know, above $100, closer to $150 oil which has profound implications in the economy. The $40 oil implication is one of abundance and growth and the other one is an outcome of probably a stark and steep recession."
For the millions of Americans watching their 401(k) balances, the stakes are just as personal. A prolonged recession would drag down portfolio values, while the abundance scenario could fuel market gains. Fink didn't provide any advice in the BBC interview for how to handle the recession scenario, but in his annual letter to investors released on March 23 (5), he mentioned that "some of the market's strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines."
He seems to encourage staying with your investments for the long term rather than reacting to the moment. "Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right. Over the past two decades, every dollar invested in the S&P 500 grew more than eightfold. Miss just the ten best days, and you would have earned less than half."
—
Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
AAA (1); BBC (2); U.S. Energy Information Administration (3); International Energy Agency (4); BlackRock (5)
You May Also Like
- Turning 50 with $0 saved for retirement? Most people don’t realize they’re actually just entering their prime earning decade. Here are 6 ways to catch up fast
- This 20-year-old lotto winner refused $1M in cash and chose $1,000/week for life. Now she’s getting slammed for it. Which option would you pick?
- Warren Buffett used these 8 repeatable money rules to turn $9,800 into a $150B fortune. Start using them today to get rich (and stay rich)
- Here are 5 easy ways to own multiple properties like Bezos and Beyoncé. You can start with $10 (and no, you don’t have to manage a single thing)
Joanna Sinclair is an engagement editor for Moneywise. She holds a B.A. in Professional Writing from York University and has been working in digital media for nearly two decades.
