We’re approaching summer, which means more travel and a boost to the U.S. economy. But with tensions brewing between the U.S. and Canada, it may be a more muted bump.
President Trump has promised to slap tariffs on the country and also repeatedly talked about Canada becoming the 51st state. Tariffs have been postponed for another month and will now be implemented on April 2.
Here’s what this could mean for the U.S. travel sector.
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Canadians urged to "choose Canada" amid tensions
Earlier this month, the U.S. Travel Association stated that Canadians may cancel their trips if President Trump slaps new tariffs on the country.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also urged Canadians to “choose Canada” in a press briefing Feb. 2. “It might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites and tourist destinations our great country has to offer,” he said.
And there's plenty of evidence Canadians plan to do just that.
Travel Alliance Partnership CEO Nicole Mahoney told WKRN News her organization saw “an immediate impact” on travel to the U.S. from Canada as tensions grew. She said, “One of our tour operators told us immediately she lost about 30% of her business trips that she had already booked to the U.S.”
Speaking to WKRN News, Canadian Neil Anderson said his family canceled travel plans to Nashville and Memphis and decided to vacation in Mexico instead. “I don’t like, politically, what’s going on,” he said. “They’re attacking my country.”
A survey by Leger, a market research company, showed that nearly half of Canadian travellers (48%) say they are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2025 compared to last year. The reasons cited have to do with the changing relations and political tensions between the two countries.
Travel Weekly cited ForwardKeys data that showed flight searches from Canada fell by 6% from the first week of February compared to January 25 to 31, 2025, resulting in about 354,000 fewer searches.
Tariffs could also strengthen the U.S. dollar, which would turn off Canadian and other tourists, leading them to go elsewhere.
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What this means
Canada is the biggest source of international visitors to the U.S. Our neighbors to the north accounted for 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. Even 10% less Canadian tourists could mean 14,000 job losses in related industries in the US, and two million less visitors, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Florida, California, Nevada, New York and Texas are the top states Canadians visit. Since shopping is a popular activity for Canadian visitors, these states could see steep declines in retail and hospitality revenue.
Although the U.S. may see reduced travel from certain countries, it does have several events in the upcoming years that could attract more tourism, even with all the political uncertainty. For instance, there's the FIFA 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. There’s also the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City in 2034, which has the potential to attract tourists from all over the world.
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Sarah Li-Cain, AFC is a finance and small business writer with over a decade of experience.
