I can save $172 a month if I refinance my mortgage, but is it actually worth it in the long run? What homeowners need to know

But is it actually a good deal? Let’s just say, the monthly payment doesn't tell the whole story. Here's the state of home financing in the U.S., and what mortgage-holders need to know before refinancing.

Homeowners are eager to refinance

Many who bought homes recently have been watching mortgage rates closely. A survey conducted by U.S. News between in September found nearly 74% of Americans who bought a home in the previous year plan on refinancing in the future, while 19% said they do not and 7% already had (1).

But expectations don’t always line up with reality. Forty percent of recent buyers said they want rates to fall below 5.5% before refinancing, while 30% want to wait for rates under 5%, and 15% want rates dropped below 4.5% — levels that economists don’t expect to see anytime soon.

Mortgage forecasts collected by U.S. News suggest 30-year fixed rates will hover between 6% and 6.5% through 2026, with only a small chance they'll dip below 6% toward the end of the year into 2027 (2). In other words, homeowners hoping for low rates may be waiting a long time.

How to tell whether it's worth it to refinance

Refinancing your mortgage can lower your monthly payment, but beware of deals that add interest and balloon the total cost of a home. Here are some things to consider:

Closing costs and fees: Closing costs for a refinance can sometimes run into the tens of thousands of dollars, especially on large loan balances. If it takes several years for your monthly savings to outweigh those costs, and you expect to sell or refinance again before then, you could end up losing money overall. That’s why it’s important to calculate the “break-even” point.

Timing: Refinancing now could mean missing out on a better opportunity later if rates dip. And refinancing too often can lead to repeated closing costs that erase potential gains. This can be hard to get right, so you may want to pay attention to forecasts from mortgage experts.