Mar 12, 2026
America’s decline in immigration in response to the Trump administration’s policies could have more of an impact on your day-to-day life and finances than you might think.
A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found a striking correlation between immigration levels and mortality among people over 65. The research found that every additional 1,000 working-age immigrants admitted to the U.S. is associated with 10 fewer deaths among older adults each year.
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On the other hand, if immigration were to increase by 25% each year (meaning an additional 325,000 people), statistical analysis suggests 5,000 deaths would be prevented annually among the elderly (1).
The surge of aggressive enforcement, detentions and deportations has caused many immigrants to leave the country, voluntarily or involuntarily, and far fewer people are trying to come in. And that doesn’t just mean undocumented people — the U.S. is now a less attractive destination for legal immigrants across many broad categories. For the first time in half a century, net migration into the country was negative in 2025 (2).
The stakes in America’s immigration fight are not just political, humanitarian or economic, they could be measured in hospital bills, caregiving shortages, and ultimately lives.
Why immigration affects seniors’ health
The critical connection comes down to staffing.
Immigrants play a huge role in America’s health care workforce. They account for:
- 26% of physicians and surgeons
- 40% of home health aides
- 21% of nurse assistants
- Over 18% of the total health care workforce (1)
Roughly 11,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every single day through 2027 in a demographic wave often called “Peak 65” (3). Americans are also living longer, and many are managing multiple chronic conditions that need ongoing support. Having an adequate health care workforce will be critical to taking care of these folks, now and in the future.
Home health aides help older adults with daily necessities such as bathing, dressing, eating and managing medications. They can help make it possible for seniors to age in place instead of moving into nursing homes. Some aides work in long-term-care facilities, where adequate staffing and safe staffing ratios are strongly linked to better outcomes and lower death rates.
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But this system is already strained. According to the Home Care Association of America, home care providers are turning away more than 25% of referred patients because of staff shortages (4).
At the same time this demand is surging, immigration policy has tightened, creating a squeeze for those who need the help.
Starting in January, the U.S. Department of State paused the issuing of immigration visas for people from 75 countries. Workers from these countries make up about 8% of U.S. health care workers, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis. That’s 1.2 million health care workers, more than half of whom are home health aides or nursing assistants (5).
The U.S. already faces a projected shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036, according to workforce analysis highlighted in The Conversation (6). Narrowing the pipeline of immigrant health care workers could widen that gap.
Related: How to lower your health insurance costs
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What this means for your health — and wallet
Health care labor shortages impact Americans at not just a personal level, but in terms of the national economy.
If there aren’t enough home health aides in your area, hourly rates climb as their labor is in demand. If nursing homes struggle to find enough staff, monthly costs rise. If specialist shortages grow, wait times could stretch. Some patients may delay care, potentially leading to more serious (and expensive) medical problems later.
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Families could also feel the strain in other ways:
- Adult children may have to cut down work hours to provide unpaid care
- Seniors may enter residential care sooner if home care isn’t available
- Retirement savings may be spent faster than expected
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that higher immigration levels could boost GDP by $9 trillion and reduce federal deficits by $0.9 trillion over a decade (7). And the Brookings Institution warns that reduced immigration in 2025 and 2026 could dampen economic growth (2).
For retirees, this economic backdrop matters because it could affect everything from inflation to the long-term stability of federal programs that many rely on.
Even though you can’t set policy, there are ways you can prepare for rising health care costs. Here are steps to consider:
Stress-test your assumptions
When modeling retirement expenses, consider running projections that assume higher health care inflation, especially for long-term care.
Explore long-term-care insurance
Premiums can be high, but compare that against the potential cost of several years of in-home or facility care (8).
Include flexibility in your plan
Having an easily accessible emergency fund can help you adapt if care costs spike or if family caregiving needs increase unexpectedly.
Research local trends
Health care costs differ by region. Areas with stronger health care workforces may offer better availability and pricing stability over time.
America’s aging population wave is already here, and the demand for care will only grow. The recent research suggests immigration levels have a direct impact on whether that demand can be safely met. For families who are planning retirement or helping aging parents navigate theirs, it goes beyond policy and hits them personally.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
National Bureau of Economic Research (1); Brookings Institution (2); Limra (3); Home Care Association of America (4); Kaiser Family Foundation (5) The Conversation (6); Congressional Budget Office (7); AARP (8)
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Jessica is a freelance writer with a professional background in economic development and small business consulting. She has a Bachelor of Arts in Communications and Sociology and is completing her Publishing Certificate.
