‘Don’t be silly’: The price of jet fuel is crashing, but airlines have no immediate plans to pass the savings on to you

In the spring, concerns about massive jet fuel shortages — particularly in Europe — left many travelers worried they’d be left stranded while abroad. To offset higher fuel costs, many airlines increased fare prices and fees, with some adding a fuel surcharge to the cost of a ticket.

Jet fuel reached a high of $4.88 per gallon on April 2. The price has since dropped to $2.70 a gallon (as of June 18), according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index. At the start of the year (Jan. 2), the price was $2.11 a gallon.

So airfares should be coming down, too — right? Not so fast.

“If people will pay it, why would you take it back?” Michael Boyd, an aviation industry consultant, told NPR. “I mean, if people are willing to pay an extra $5 to check a bag and there’s no pushback, don’t be silly.”

Here’s why those ticket prices likely won’t drop right away.

Airfares are likely to remain elevated

Just prior to the Iran war, the average fare for an international flight was $774 (on Feb. 23), according to Kayak flight search data. Fares spiked to an average of $1,105 on May 4, dropping back down to $980 as of June 8.

But that’s still higher than prior to the war — and more than 20% higher than the same time last year.

And, having a precarious peace framework in place doesn’t mean everything is suddenly back to ‘normal.’ One can’t simply flip a switch to get the industry — oil fields, refineries, shipping routes — back up and running. And that’s assuming the peace deal actually holds.

There’s also been significant damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, which could take months or even years to repair.

In the meantime, airlines may keep airfares elevated in an effort to recoup their losses (when jet fuel prices spiked and decimated their profit margins). U.S. airlines lost a whopping $1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

But another issue? As airlines raised fares, travelers kept buying tickets. That means there’s less incentive to lower prices. However, it’s possible that travelers kept buying tickets because carriers reduced capacity and cut routes, so there’s fewer options — especially since ultra-low-cost Spirit Airlines shut down in May.

But carriers are counting on travelers to keep paying up.

Industry fares increased seven times since the start of the war.

“With fares up though ​that much, there’s been no drop-off in demand at all,” Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan said during a Bernstein investor conference on May 27. That’s across leisure and business, as well as geographies, he said.

United CEO Scott Kirby said in an April earnings call that “the longer this lasts, the higher the probability goes that the pricing increases hold.” And, even if things were to go back to pre-war ‘normal,’ he believes the carrier would still “keep 20% of the price increase next year.”

Airlines face rising costs — and not just for jet fuel. Persistent inflation has also led to higher labor costs and operating costs, cutting into profit margins.

“So in terms of looking forward to a future of bright low $59 fares, that was on another planet long, long ago,” Boyd told NPR.

How to budget for summer travel

Maybe you’ve been waiting it out to see if prices would drop (and they have, slightly). Since airfares are likely to remain elevated — and the peace framework is tenuous — it could be a bit of a gamble to wait and see if fares do, in fact, fall.

If demand weakens in fall or winter, consumers could potentially see more seat sales. And Middle Eastern carriers could potentially lower rates or offer deals to stimulate demand, after seeing a 46.6% drop in demand in April.