Apr 24, 2026
More families are choosing the childfree life or to be one and done. According to a recent report (1) by the Congressional Budget Office, the US by 2055 will have roughly 8 million fewer residents than they earlier projected. The CBO projects the US population will grow to 364 million by that year (from 349 million in 2026), which is 2% less than it projected in January 2025.
In 2020, there were 1.64 births per woman. By 2036, this will drop to 1.53, according to the data. That number should be 2.7 per woman (2) to avoid population decline (or even long-term extinction), per a study led by researchers in Japan.
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Economist Nicholas Eberstadt from the American Enterprise Institute shared concerns (3) with NPR about how the birthrate crisis could destabilize key U.S. programs that keep the economy running, such as Social Security and Medicare. This could make it harder for businesses to recruit younger people and could reshape demographics, especially in rural communities.
If government programs are stripped or pulled back, people may have to work longer in their retirement years, as we're living longer.
In China, Japan, Italy and South Korea, there are already more deaths than births, and experts say more developed countries would face serious population decline if not for immigration, which is another challenge (4) facing the U.S. now, and a key factor in the CBO’s projections.
'Have more babies' is not the right advice
But advice that women should "have more babies" (5) or have kids earlier dismisses the financial side of family building.
Some individuals and couples may need fertility treatments they can't afford, while others are opting out of parenthood altogether due to factors including job insecurity, cost-of-living pressures, rising child care costs and the so-called motherhood tax, (6) which refers to the financial and career penalties women tend to experience after having children.
When costs go up, birth rates go down (7). The costs of child care alone went up 29% between 2020 and 2024 (8). Yet President Donald Trump, who once proclaimed himself the fertility president, said it's not possible to fund daycare, as he's "fighting wars" (9).
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Family planning is financial
Attempting to fix the root causes of the affordability crisis in child rearing is better than a one-off cash incentive, as other countries have tried with little success, as reported by CNBC (10).
Trump has tried his hand at that, too, including with the $1,000 investment (11) for all babies born under his term. It's too early to get substantive stats around this program and whether it has directly influenced the birth rate. However, this does not address needs such as a federal paid maternity leave (12) program, subsidized childcare and equal pay, along with financial help in conceiving children.
Several U.S. states have policies providing paid family leave, but this does not take the place of widespread federal benefits. In late April (13), a proposed expansion of paid maternity leave for state employees in Nebraska was shot down, demonstrating the issues with a state-by-state system.
Financial infertility is a thing
The costs of conceiving can also be a barrier for couples who need medical treatments in order to do so. Diana and Paul Zucknick, who needed fertility treatments, spoke to Moneywise. They said they had to get creative to access medical care. They found jobs at companies that offer insurance for fertility treatments, using donated supplies from other patients or pet sitting to save on rent (14).
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"We help families travel with peace of mind by caring for their pets and home like they were our own while they are away, exchanging our services as pet-sitters for lodging in their home," Diana Zucknick said.
Andrea Syrtash, who founded Pregnantish and the World Fertility Awards (15), told Moneywise, "We can't worry about declining birth rates while ignoring the one in five people who need medical help to have a child. Access to fertility care has to be part of the solution."
Michael Johnson-Ellis, who co-founded My Surrogacy Journey (16), notes the concept of "financial infertility." As he told Moneywise, "Financial infertility puts language around an uncomfortable truth — that money, not biology, is often what decides who gets to become a parent."
Overall, the choice to become a parent has financial implications from conception through age 18, and in the US, the average cost for that is over $300,000 for a middle-income couple.
Couples who are planning to have children but worried about expenses could consider making lifestyle changes such as moving closer to family members who are willing to help with child care, if that's an option. They can also prioritize jobs that are flexible and stable and offer generous maternity and paternity leave (17) programs, as well as help with IVF. Seeking out local support groups, leaning on parent friends for childcare swapping and creatively curating your own village early on can also help parents navigate what can be a challenging and expensive journey.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Congressional Budget Office (1); PLOS ONE (2); NPR (3); U.S. Census Bureau (4); The New York Times (5); YWCA Pittsburgh (6); Abigail Dow (7); Child Care Aware of America (8); NBC News (9); CNBC (10); Trump Accounts (11); Deel (12); Newsweek (13); Trusted Housesitters (14); Yahoo Finance (15); My Surrogacy Journey (16); The Penny Hoarder (17)
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Amanda Smith is a freelance journalist and writer. She reports on culture/society, technology, and health. Her ability to hold a mirror up to society, to see both the malaise and majesty, has led to assignments with highly respected titles such as The Guardian, Business Insider, MIT Tech Review, and National Geographic.
