More than 125,000 residents have fled NYC for Florida in recent years — and it’s cost the Big Apple $14B worth of income. But here’s why the trend could reverse

But Florida isn’t the only state attracting New Yorkers in recent years. City residents have also moved to nearby states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and distant states like California and Texas.

This level of out-migration could have a significant impact on the city’s economy.

Here’s why the CBC report believes New York City is at an “inflection point” and the trend could reverse.

Lost tax revenue

A city that loses residents also loses tax revenue. This problem is particularly acute in New York, which taxes its residents higher than most other parts of the country.

On a per capita basis, the state of New York collected $12,751 in 2022, 79% higher than the national average and the highest among all 50 states, according to the CBC report.

Out-migration in recent years could create a shortfall in tax revenue in the years ahead. The city’s budget could see a gap ranging from $7.8 billion to $10.1 billion, according to the CBC’s estimates.

Faced with a gap in its coffers, city officials might have to make difficult decisions about how much they borrow or spend to manage city services. However, there are signs that the city’s population and aggregate income is growing, which could mitigate some of this gap.

New York’s population is growing

New York City Mayor Eric Adams recently announced that the city’s population decline was over and that the number of residents was on an upswing. The city’s population grew in 2023 and 2024 and stands at 8,478,000 people as of March.