Mar 17, 2025
For farmers in Idaho, uncertainty is just as dangerous as bad news.
On April 9, President Trump put a 90-day pause on most of his global tariffs, but those levied against Canadian and Mexican goods reportedly remain in place. The chaos and uncertainty around retaliatory tariffs has left farmers and ranchers bracing for the financial impact.
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“Long run consequences are that we become less efficient, less profitable and less productive,” Timothy Nadreau, assistant professor of agricultural economics at the University of Idaho, told KTVB 7 News.
From potatoes to cattle, Idaho’s agricultural economy depends on trade. Now, with tariffs threatening key exports like dairy, wheat and beef, farmers are staring down the possibility of shrinking demand and lower profits.
For consumers, that could ultimately lead to higher prices at the grocery store.
Idaho farmers caught in the tariff crosshairs
Idaho, along with much of the Pacific Northwest, produces far more food than it can consume. That’s why international trade is essential — farmers rely on foreign markets to sell surplus crops and livestock, but tariffs can limit trade options.
“If South Korea had a tariff on our potatoes, U.S. potatoes would be expensive in South Korea, so they would buy less of them,” Nadreau explained. “That means less income to our growers. It means less income to our processors, and ultimately, it means less income circulating in our economy.”
When foreign buyers cut back, Idaho's agricultural industry feels the squeeze. If Trump's tariffs are short-term, it could lead to an oversupply in the U.S., which could drive prices down. But if the tariffs last too long, farmers will likely scale back production, resulting in long-term price increases.
Retaliatory tariffs from China are already targeting U.S. food exports. As CNN reports, Beijing is now imposing 84% tariffs on all U.S. imports, which include chicken, wheat, corn, pork and dairy. According to KTVB 7 News, this could reduce demand for Idaho farm products even further.
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Cattle ranchers, who have long relied on tariff-free trade with Mexico and Canada, are also concerned.
“Trade with Mexico and Canada has been free of tariffs for decades in our industry,” said Cameron Mulrony, Executive Vice President of the Idaho Cattle Association. “There are many answers, to questions our industry has put forward, that are yet to be determined.”
While the true impact of Trump’s tariffs is uncertain, some farming groups remain hopeful. The Idaho Farm Bureau Federation released a statement that read, in part:
"While farmers often bear the brunt of tariff retaliation, we’re hopeful the administration can limit trade disruptions and ensure farmers who are already operating on thin margins aren’t caught in the crosshairs."
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How to manage rising food prices
While Idaho farmers worry about lost sales, American consumers can likely expect to feel the pinch in their grocery budgets. Fruit, vegetables, grains and meats imported from Mexico and Canada could become more expensive, and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods could push domestic food costs up as well.
So, what can shoppers do to keep costs in check? Below are a few options that you might want to consider.
- Use meal planning to limit grocery costs. Only buy what you need, and plan meals based on sales and in-season produce.
- If you have the storage space, stock up when items are on sale. Pay attention to weekly sales at your grocery store and buy extras to freeze.
- Consider shopping at cheaper stores. Lower-cost grocers like Aldi, family-run grocery stores or international markets may have lower prices for many items.
- Look for lower-cost alternatives to your regular grocery items. Purchasing no-name brand items or making vegetarian versions of your favorite meals can help keep costs down.
- Look for food-saving programs, such as Food Not Bombs or Too Good To Go. These, along with similar programs, help rescue surplus food and offer it for free or at a discount.
- Leverage the food bank if you need it. If grocery bills become unmanageable, local food banks or assistance programs are designed to help consumers bridge the gap.
While it's difficult to predict how long this global trade war will last, Idaho farmers and consumers alike are left wondering what happens next. If the tariff war continues, the result could lead to lower sales for farmers and higher prices for American consumers.
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Danielle is a personal finance writer whose work has appeared in publications including Motley Fool and Business Insider. She believes financial literacy key to helping people build a life they love. She’s especially passionate about helping families and kids learn smart money habits early.
