Oct 16, 2024
In recent years, electric vehicles have gained significant traction in the U.S. And several states are moving to accelerate the transition by planning bans on the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in the near future.
California was the first state to adopt the Advanced Clean Cars II rule, which dictates that, “by 2035 all new passenger cars, trucks and SUVs sold in California will be zero emissions.” Governor Gavin Newsom emphasized the urgency, stating that cars “shouldn’t melt glaciers or raise sea levels.”
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But California isn’t standing alone. So far, 11 other states have followed suit, setting their sights on phasing out the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035.
However, this sweeping shift doesn’t sit well with former President Donald Trump. Speaking at a rally in Saginaw, Michigan, the Republican presidential nominee declared, “When I'm president, no state in America will be permitted to ban gas powered cars or trucks, and I guarantee it — no way, no way. You're going to make them right here.”
The crowd erupted in cheers.
Despite the growing buzz around EVs, they still represent a relatively small piece of the U.S. auto market. Kelley Blue Book estimated that in 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%.
If Trump wins the election and succeeds in halting state-level bans on gas-powered cars, the automotive landscape could shift dramatically. Here’s a look at three stocks that could benefit from this potential move — stocks that Wall Street already finds attractive.
Ford (F)
Ford has been making headlines with its push toward electrification, rolling out models like the Mustang Mach-E, an all-electric SUV, and the F-150 Lightning, an electric version of its iconic pickup truck. However, the company’s core business remains tied to traditional combustion engines.
In 2023, Ford says it sold 1,995,912 vehicles, but only 72,608 were EVs. Financially, the EV segment has been a challenge. According to a report in Bloomberg, Ford’s losses per electric vehicle exceeded $100,000 in the first quarter of 2024, prompting the company to cut battery supplier orders.
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To recalibrate, Ford is pivoting production at its Oakville, Ontario plant. Originally slated for electric SUV production, the plant will be prioritizing its high-demand F-Series Super Duty trucks.
If Trump prevents states from banning gas-powered cars, Ford could continue thriving in the truck and SUV market, especially given the F-Series status as America’s best-selling vehicle.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney has a “buy” rating on Ford and a price target of $13, implying a potential upside of 20%.
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General Motors (GM)
General Motors, like Ford, has heavily invested in EVs while still leaning on its profitable lineup of gas-powered cars, SUVs and trucks, including popular models like the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra.
In June, GM reportedly announced plans to scale back its EV production target for 2024, reducing expectations to between 200,000 and 250,000 vehicles, down from a previous estimate of up to 300,000. At its recent investor day, GM projected it would close the year producing “about 200,000” EVs, at the low end of its revised guidance. Meanwhile, the company has said it expects operating losses in its EV segment to shrink by $2 billion to $4 billion in 2025.
GM sold 75,883 EVs last year — only 2.9% of the company’s total sales. CNBC noted that “a vast majority of those” of those sales came from GM's now-discontinued Chevrolet Bolt models.
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If Trump’s proposed policies slow the shift to EVs, GM could continue to capitalize on its established and profitable gas-powered lineups.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives has an “outperform” rating on GM and a price target of $55 — 13% above where the stock sits today.
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Exxon Mobil is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. It’s also a familiar name to drivers of gasoline-powered vehicles, with more than 11,000 gas stations across the U.S.
Business is highly lucrative. In 2023, the company generated $36.0 billion in profits and $55.4 billion in cash flow from operating activities.
The company’s profitability translates to strong shareholder returns. In 2023, Exxon returned $32.4 billion to investors, including $14.9 billion in dividends and $17.4 billion in stock buybacks.
With its entrenched position in traditional energy, Exxon stands to benefit if gas-powered cars continue to dominate American roads. A policy preventing states from banning gasoline vehicles could sustain fuel demand, allowing Exxon to leverage its vast infrastructure and extensive oil reserves.
Exxon shares have already surged 18% in 2024, and UBS analyst Josh Silverstein sees further upside on the horizon. Silverstein has a “Buy” rating on Exxon and a price target of $149 — roughly 24% above the current levels.
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Jing is an investment reporter for MoneyWise. He is an avid advocate of investing for passive income. Despite the ups and downs he’s been through with the markets, Jing believes that you can generate a steadily increasing income stream by investing in high quality companies.
