US home prices are finally starting to drop from record highs — here are the 2 key factors ‘taking a bite’ out of homebuyers right now

But prices don’t go up forever.

According to a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin, the median home sale price in the U.S. was $393,449 in the four-week period ended July 10. That represented a 0.7% decline from the peak during the four weeks ended June 19.

“Inflation and high mortgage rates are taking a bite out of homebuyer budgets,” says Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

Let’s take a look at what’s happening.

Rising interest rates

Inflation is not just eating into people’s homebuying budget, it has also led to one of the major coolers for real estate: higher interest rates.

To tame spiking inflation, the Fed is tightening aggressively. Last month, it raised its benchmark interest rates by 75 basis points, marking the largest rate hike since 1994.

And now, with June’s headline inflation rate coming in above expectations at 9.1%, traders expect the Fed to make a full percentage move at its meeting later this month.

Higher interest rates mean higher costs of borrowing — not good news if you have a mortgage. And if you are planning to buy a house, a higher mortgage rate means you might not be able to afford the same house that you were eyeing earlier.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. was 5.51% for the week ended July 14 — a substantial increase compared to 3.11% at the beginning of this year.

In fact, there’s already a drop in mortgage applications.

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest survey, for the week ended July 8, mortgage purchase applications declined 18% from a year ago.

Can higher prices cure higher prices?

The upward momentum may have died out, but that doesn’t mean real estate is cheap.

While the median home sale prices slipped 0.7% sequentially in the four weeks ended July 10, it was still up 12% year over year.

It’s a similar story with the asking price. At $397,475, the median asking price of newly listed homes is down 2.8% from the all-time high set in May, but is still 14% higher compared to a year ago.