Will Trump’s rollback of vehicle-emission rules really make cars $2,400 cheaper — or will the move cost drivers more in the long run?

According to the BBC, that ruling has served as the legal foundation for federal emissions limits across industries, especially the automotive industry (1).

By removing it, the White House argues automakers will face fewer compliance costs, which officials say could lower vehicle prices by roughly $2,400 per unit.

But whether drivers actually save money depends on a more complicated equation than sticker price alone — one that includes fuel costs, efficiency standards and how long a vehicle stays on the road.

Jason Schwartz, legal director at New York University's Institute for Policy Integrity, told Reuters that the $2,400 savings on the price of less-efficient cars will be cancelled out by the cost of gas.

He notes that the Department of Transportation’s own estimates point to this (2).

"As for just how quickly any upfront savings will evaporate in the face of more money spent at the gas pump, very quickly indeed," Schwartz said

Administration officials also claim the broader rollback could save the economy more than $1 trillion by reducing regulatory burdens and lowering energy costs.

However, NHTSA argues the proposal would increase fuel consumption by around 100 billion gallons through 2050.

Here’s a closer look at whether the rollback will really save drivers money over the long haul.

The math behind the $2,400 claim

Fuel-economy rules — such as Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards set by the U.S. Department of Transportation — require automakers to improve fuel economy across their fleets.

These rules often push manufacturers to add efficiency technology, which can increase production costs but reduce fuel consumption over time.

According to Environmental Protection Agency data, newer vehicles typically achieve significantly higher fuel economy than models from a decade ago — so drivers don’t have to buy as much gas (3)

The average 2023 model car reached a record fuel efficiency of 27.1 miles per gallon, up from 24 miles per gallon in 2015.

Let’s compare what it would cost an American to drive just such a fuel-efficient car versus what it would cost to drive a less fuel-efficient car.

Cost of fuel-efficient car versus less efficient car over a year

Our assumptions:

1. Our hypothetical driver travels 13,500 miles a year (4)
2. Gas costs $3.50 per gallon

With a fuel-efficient car (operating 27.1 miles per gallon), they’ll spend $1,743.54 on gas.

With a less fuel-efficient car (operating at 22 miles per gallon), they’ll spend $2,148 on gas, and pay at least $400 more yearly in gas than the driver with the more efficient vehicle — adding up to $2,400 extra cost in six years.

Why does the real cost depend on drivers

Whether deregulation saves or costs money varies widely based on driving habits, fuel prices and vehicle lifespan.

Drivers who keep cars for only a few years, drive fewer miles annually or buy efficient vehicles are likely to benefit from lower upfront prices.

In contrast, drivers that cover long distances, keep cars for a decade or more, or buy less efficient models are exposed to rising fuel costs.

Manufacturers selling vehicles globally must still meet stricter standards in European countries and other regions (5).

That could limit how much companies actually reduce efficiency for U.S. models, potentially shrinking the projected price drop.