The U.S. auto industry is in the midst of one of its most transitional eras in history, battling increased production costs, trade tensions, a whirlwind of changes in electric vehicle mandates and demand, and stiff competition from countries where government subsidies, cheap tech and even cheaper labour are plentiful.
China has emerged as a real force to be reckoned with in the sector, with Shenzhen’s BYD overtaking Tesla as the world’s top EV brand last year. And, it doesn’t look like the company’s lead is going to waver anytime soon, especially as its congested domestic market demands the best of the best to avoid falling by the wayside.
While sales in China have plummeted for Ford, GM and Stellantis as a result, it’s not Chinese buyers that the U.S. giants have to be worried about, but the broader international landscape — including here at home, even with present import bans in place.
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Ford CEO Jim Farley said himself at the 50th annual Automotive News Conference this month that “it’s too late” for Europe to resume an upper hand over the inexpensive, futuristic vehicles Asia is producing and shipping out.
And while he thinks that there is still some hope for American makers to deflect the threat, other experts — and the numbers — suggest otherwise.
Industry domination is already being felt indirectly
By 2030, Chinese car manufacturers are expected to own about one third of the global trade as sales of models from BYD, Geely and others ramp up across Russia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the Americas.
Donald Trump’s tariffs and moratoriums on certain auto tech have helped shut out foreign-made EVs, which go for as little as a few thousand dollars in Asia, but the president has recently softened his stance in an unexpected way, stating last month that he would consider allowing China-based firms to sell their cars on American soil if they also built them here and created local jobs in the process. (It’s something that got other manufacturers’ backs up.)
Still, the impact of an influx of cheaper, more technologically advanced models into other nations has forced non-American competitors, whose U.S. sales also benefit from our China-focused restrictions, to try and keep up.
As noted by one Bloomberg report, brands from Japan, Korea and Europe are now leveraging the U.S. market and seeing increasing sales here, putting pressure on homegrown marques who lag in fuel efficiency and savings.
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Can other brands keep up?
On the topic of competition from China, Farley told the audience in Detroit on September 29, “I think it’s important for us to take our time to be considerate. I watch what’s happening in Europe right now, where that was not the case, and it’s really something that they have to deal with now, and it’s too late.” But he failed to touch on how the indirect impacts of BYD’s and others’ presence in Europe is already having.
Part of Ford’s strategy has been, quite controversially, to partner with Geely — which is hot on the heels of BYD and based a short flight away in Hangzhou — and allow it to share an existing Ford plant in Spain to “optimize factory utilization,” share development costs and foster “open collaboration,” per a press release.
In an internal town hall over the summer, Farley said he’s preparing for Chinese makers to make their foray into the U.S. market within the coming years, regardless of the import restraints currently in place.
Ford Executive Chair Bill Ford has said about the same, saying in July “We have to go toe-to-toe with China. We can’t expect to keep them out forever, and we have to be able to beat them at their own game.” But some experts don’t believe beating them is even possible at this point.
North of the border, BYD is about to debut its first Canadian dealerships around Toronto by the end of the year, with the aim of opening 20 nationwide within one year of operations.
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Becky Robertson is a senior staff reporter at Moneywise and a lifelong writer. Along with more than a decade covering news at outlets like blogTO and Quill & Quire, she's attended writing residencies around the world. With 33 countries visited, she finds travel to be among her greatest inspirations.
