Jul 24, 2026
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Add us on GoogleSelling carbon credits to competitors used to be one of Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) cash cows. Following recent regulatory changes, however, this once billion-plus business model is screeching to a halt.
According to the EV automaker’s Q2 2026 earnings report, automotive regulatory credits came in at $146 million this quarter. For comparison, these credits brought in roughly $400 million to $500 million per quarter in 2025, and they reached a peak of $2.76 billion for the entirety of fiscal 2024.
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Ironically, the death of this high-margin business has to do with mandates from President Donald Trump, who Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk supported in the 2024 election.
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In 2025, the Working Families Tax Cuts Act dropped the civil penalty to $0 for any car company that wasn’t up to the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. That change makes Tesla’s fuel economy credits essentially worthless since automakers no longer need credits to offset fees for missing CAFE targets.
The White House is also working with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to “reset” the CAFE standards put in place by Former President Joe Biden so they’re more favorable to gas-powered vehicles.
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy made it clear he isn’t an EV cheerleader, saying, “Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg illegally twisted mileage standards to create an electric vehicle mandate — jacking up car prices for American families and forcing manufacturers to produce vehicles no one wanted.”
As the DOT noted, it expects to “eliminate the CAFE credit trading program starting in model year 2028,” arguing these carbon credits “artificially propped up the EV industry at the expense of traditional automakers.”
Tesla’s credit collapse puts margins in reverse
Losing these carbon credit sales is already taking a toll on Tesla’s profit margins. In the last few quarters, revenue from these regulatory credits boosted the total margin percentage by anywhere from 1.6% to 2.5%. That dropped significantly in Q2 2026 to a paltry 0.6%, making Tesla’s automotive gross margin 16.9$ for the quarter. For context, in the last two quarters, this number was over 20%.
These compressed margins played a big role in Tesla’s 5% year-over-year decline in net income, which was roughly $1.11 billion this quarter.
Even though these numbers aren’t headed in the right direction, that doesn’t mean it’s all doom and gloom for the EV automaker.
In fact, Tesla reported strong deliveries of 480,126, which pumped up its quarterly revenue to $28.2 billion — a 26% surge year-over-year.
Another bright spot was Tesla’s battery storage division, which had $3.1 billion in quarterly revenue, up 13% year-over-year.
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However, the good news apparently wasn’t good enough in most investors’ minds. Tesla’s share price fell by about 14% the day after it released its Q2 2026 earnings.
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What’s the road ahead for Tesla?
Without carbon credits as a clutch, Tesla is doubling down on its new ventures like robotaxis, Optimus humanoid robots, and AI chips to fuel its next stage of growth.
All of this transformation is costing a lot of money, which is another reason some Tesla investors are cashing out.
In fact, Q2 2026 had a negative cash flow of $1.1 billion due to all of the investments in these cutting-edge services. Tesla spent $5.8 billion this quarter alone on these still unproven revenue streams.
And the spending isn’t going to stop any time soon. Back in April, the Financial Times reported that Musk warned investors of a “very significant increase in capital expenditure” over this year, which is expected to hit $25 billion. Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja also admitted this spending will continue for “the next two or three years” with the company’s cash and $30 billion in debt, according to the Financial Times.
For today’s Tesla investors, the key question is whether you believe Musk’s ambitious buildout will truly be worth it in the long run.
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Eric Esposito is a freelance contributor on MoneyWise who loves making financial topics accessible and understandable to readers. In addition to MoneyWise, Eric’s work can be found in publications such as WallStreetZen and CoinDesk.
