May 14, 2026
New York, New York – every time people try to count it out, it always comes back fighting. And while the battle between New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and billionaire Ken Griffin about the proposed pied-à-terre tax (1) is still in its early rounds, fears of a wealth exodus from the city might be calmed just a bit – at least for now – by some real estate deals that show the rich are still, as always, paying big bucks to live in Manhattan.
New York realty company Oshan in its luxury market report (2) for May 4 to 10 notes that 36 contracts for apartments worth $4 million or more were signed, seven more than in the previous week (3) and two more than in the week before that. And 10 of those deals closed for over $10 million, while 20 of them were for at least $5 million – the price level at which New York is considering the pied-à-terre tax. The 10 that closed over $10 million compares to 8 during the same time last year (4) – up 25%. Sales of luxury homes overall were up 20% from April 2025 to 2026. And sales of homes over $10 million from the week of April 13 to May 10 totaled 37, compared to 24 during the same time period last year (3) – up 54%.
Flying in the face of a wealth exodus
Now, unless these are second (or third, or fourth) homes, new owners signing contracts for homes worth $5 million or more won't be subject to the potential tax, which is aimed at non-residents whose places are mostly sitting empty. This would include people like hedge fund manager Griffin, a Florida resident with a significant real estate presence (5) in New York, including the $238 million penthouse that's received so much attention since Mamdani called it out in his viral Tax Day video (6) introducing the pied-à-terre proposal that could potentially create $500 million a year (1) in revenue for the city. But it does fly in the face of the notion that such taxes might scare the wealthy off (7).
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This doesn't mean that some of them aren't making noise about it. Griffin himself, who is reportedly worth an estimated $50 billion (8), has not quite pledged to leave New York yet, but he has said he'll be turning more attention toward his expansion of his firm Citadel's investment in Miami, where it's headquartered. Citadel's COO Gerald Beeson also hinted at a rethinking (9) of its redevelopment plans for a tower at 350 Park Avenue, which Beeson says would create thousands of jobs and involve $6 billion in spending.
"What the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners, is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami," Griffin said during a Milken Conference (10) interview with CNBC's Sara Eisen, on May 5.
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Is New York City losing its competitive edge?
And Griffin certainly has his backers. Billionaire Bill Ackman, for one, said in an X post that we should be "applauding Ken," and that wealthy non-residents "already pay a lot of taxes including mansion taxes, real estate taxes, sales taxes and more." If the wealthiest New Yorkers – even those who don't live here year-round – leave, Ackman said, high-end development could leave with it.
John Ketcham, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, told the New York Post (7), "New York City is losing its competitive edge and Mayor Mamdani makes it far less competitive. … Investors and job creators have options and they will go where they're treated well."
And President Donald Trump said in a recent interview that Mamdani and the city need to "cherish billionaires" (11) like Griffin because, "When you lose people like that, it's sort of not recoverable."
Griffin has famously pulled up stakes before, moving Citadel's headquarters from Chicago to Miami (12) and mostly divesting himself of (13) his real estate holdings in the Windy City.
But will big business, and the ultra rich who populate that realm, really be leaving New York in droves – and will the city's reputation as the global hub for capitalism end up in tatters?
A mixed migration picture
The real picture when it comes to New York's recent migration numbers is more complicated. A study from the Citizens Budget Commission (14) finds the city had a 12,000 net drop in population last year, following strong post-pandemic gains in the previous two years – but that, when it comes to migration, income trends have actually shifted from the top 40% of earners during peak pandemic days to the bottom 40% by 2024.
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The loss of working- and middle-class residents, they report, is likely due to affordability, as well as quality of services, although, they note, "high taxes may also be a factor, especially for high-income households."
A whitepaper from real estate company JLL, shared with Fortune (15) in April, called out the "myth of mass exodus" in New York, particularly since Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist who has long believed the rich should pay more in taxes, was elected last year. Among JJL's findings was that office vacancies decreased in the first quarter of 2026 by 2.2% and that leasing volume for high-quality office space hit 8.5 million square feet.
"The most sophisticated talent continues to gravitate toward major markets like Manhattan despite the headlines," JLL reported, "and any slow-down in this growth is far more likely to stem from limited space supply on the island than from a lack of demand."
And Vornado Realty Trust, partner on the 350 Park Avenue project, recently said they are still in on the deal (16), with EVP Glenn Weiss noting,"There's a lot of rhetoric, a lot of stuff in the media that's not accurate."
And for now, there also still seems to be some demand for very high-end real estate in the city. Oshan noted in its latest report that its top contract (17) was for a 3,889-square foot, $17.6 million condo on Fifth Avenue with 10-foot-plus ceilings, four bedrooms, four and-a-half bathrooms and a sweeping view of Madison Square Park.
Article Sources
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Governor of New York (1); Olshan (2),(3),(4); Robb Report (5); YouTube (6),(10); New York Post (7),(11); Forbes (8); CoStar (9); Chicago Sun-Times (12); The Real Deal (13),(16); Citizens Budget Commission (14); Fortune (15); Real Plus Online (17)
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Rebecca specializes in business, economics and personal finance content. She has worked on consumer-facing and B2B content, including personal finance articles, articles on behavioral economics, trade publication content for financial advisors and white papers for philanthropic organizations.
