Trump's tariffs have raked in $130B, says Treasury Department — but how much of that cost will US businesses end up passing on to Americans?

“We have a lot of money coming in, much more money than the country’s ever seen,” Trump told reporters earlier that month [1].

But that’s not the whole picture.

Since tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. importers, it means American businesses pay the tariffs and choose to either absorb the cost or pass it onto consumers. Trump has repeatedly announced, delayed and threatened new tariffs. With such a wide-ranging breadth of tariffs and constantly changing trade policy, it’s not clear if it’s sustainable for businesses to absorb those costs. In some cases, companies have announced the burden would be shared with Americans in the form of higher prices.

Reuters, which is tracking how large companies are responding to the tariffs, shows that as of Sept. 23, at least 22 U.S. companies signaled price increases as a result of tariffs [2]. The list includes Walmart, Best Buy, Nike and Procter & Gamble. And 42 companies faced a financial hit, from Ford to Molson Coors to Estee Lauder.

Where prices are rising

The average consumer could see prices rise on anything from fresh produce and apparel to cars and consumer electronics.

After Walmart indicated it would raise prices as a result of tariffs, CNBC recorded the prices of around 50 products — including groceries, toys, clothing and consumer electronics — at one Walmart location in New Jersey between May and July. About a dozen products went up in price by as much as 51%, however, not all items were imported, and in cases where prices on imported items increased, it's unclear how much of a role tariffs played [3].

While that was a small sampling, a report by The Budget Lab at Yale — a nonpartisan policy research center — on Sept. 4 says consumers, at present, “face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [4].” Even after adjusting for consumption shifts, “the average tariff rate will be 16.4%, the highest since 1936.”

This may translate to an increase in price level of 1.7% in the short run, The Budget Lab says, which is equivalent to an average per household loss of $2,300 in 2025 dollars.

These tariffs “disproportionately” affect leather products, with “consumers facing 37% higher prices and 35% higher apparel prices in the short run.” And prices for both will stay higher (13%) in the long run. The Budget Lab also expects food prices to rise 3.4% in the short run (and stay at 2.5% over the longer term) and vehicle prices to rise 12% (staying at 7%).

Jessica Riedl, economic policy expert at the Manhattan Institute, told NPR that while there’s more tariff revenue, “that must be offset against the lower revenue we’re bringing in in income, payroll and corporate taxes as a result of the economy growing at only half the rate it was forecast before the year started [5].”

The Budget Lab predicts tariffs will shrink the size of the U.S. economy by 0.4% in the long run [4]. While the manufacturing sector is expected to expand by 2.7% in the long run, other sectors will contract, including construction (-3.8%), agriculture (-0.1%) and mining (-1.6%).

Of course, these figures assume trade policy will remain the same going forward. Many of Trump’s tariffs have been challenged in court, and on Aug. 29, a federal appeals court ruled much of them to be illegal. The tariffs remain in place, however, as the administration considers filing an appeal to the Supreme Court.

How to protect your household income

If businesses pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers, what can you do to protect your household budget?

Price increases on essentials may require you to adjust your monthly budget. Maybe that means buying fewer items at the grocery store or switching from brand-name items to cheaper store brands.

Or, it could mean shaving other expenses — like canceling some of your subscription services — to create more room in your budget for a higher overall grocery bill.

To prepare for potentially leaner times ahead, start by paying down high-interest debt now (like that lingering credit card bill) and build up an emergency fund. A good rule of thumb is to have three to six months of expenses covered, just in case.

Financial advisors tend to advise against making rash, panic-based decisions with your portfolio — if you’re worried about a recession or the impacts of a trade war, talk to your advisor about your options.

If you still feel like you’ll be stretched thin, you could also consider looking for ways to boost your income, such as taking on a side gig, asking for more hours at work or bringing in passive income (such as renting extra space in your home).

It’s impossible to know whether Trump will drop tariffs, create new ones or increase existing ones. While you can’t predict geopolitics, there are steps you can take to get your finances in order to better prepare for whatever uncertainty lies ahead.

Corrections, Sept. 22, 2025: The first paragraph has been updated to reflect that $31 billion in “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” had been collected in August 2025 as of Aug. 29. The headline also briefly said Trump’s tariffs brought in over $180 billion, however, this figure included revenue collected at that point in all of fiscal year 2025, which began before the current administration.

Article sources

At Moneywise, we consider it our responsibility to produce accurate and trustworthy content people can rely on to inform their financial decisions. We rely on vetted sources such as government data, financial records and expert interviews and highlight credible third-party reporting when appropriate.