Trump tariffs may have been struck down, but don't expect lower prices, businesses say. How to cope with the uncertainty

And even though the ruling was a win for businesses subject to the illegal tariffs — reportedly worth an estimated $175 billion — the court didn’t say how the government should pay back the funds. That uncertainty, along with news of new tariffs, prompted some small businesses to warn consumers lower prices won’t be coming soon.

“We absorbed almost all of the cost of the tariffs; we don’t think there’s a reason to, like, pay anybody back,” Eva St. Clair, co-owner of clothing company Princess Awesome, told Reuters in an article published Feb. 24 (1).

A study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Feb. 12 found that about 90% of the economic burden of tariffs in 2025 were shouldered by American consumers and businesses (2).

“If we ever get refunds, it will only partially make up for the losses this past year,” Josh Ketter, CEO of fulfillment and logistics firm Spreetail, told Reuters. He added his company had “no planned price changes.”

Sticky prices

A big problem for many small businesses is timing — there’s no telling how long it might take for refunds to be doled out.

Ketter’s company paid around $50 million in tariffs last year, according to Reuters, but he expects the refund process to take years. Some small businesses might not survive that long, and may be less flexible when it comes to pricing.

One business leader doubted prices would drop, but suggested sales might be a short-term option.

“We may run higher discounts to our customers though to get buying going again,” Jason Cheung, head of toy maker Huntar, told Reuters.

Another reason consumers may be unlikely to see lower prices after the tariff ruling, experts told NPR, is due to “sticky prices” — the idea that prices change more slowly than the underlying factors that go into pricing goods (3). Companies may also keep prices higher if it seems that consumers will continue to pay those higher prices.

According to the Yale Budget Lab, before the emergency tariffs were struck down, consumers faced an overall average effective tariff rate of 14.3% (4). After the Supreme Court ruling, the rate briefly fell to 7.3%. But following the latest tariffs, effective Feb. 24, the rate increased to 10.5%, at least for 150 days.

How consumers can cope

With ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, there are ways you can plan to save on what you need to buy this year.

When it comes to food costs, there are several ways to keep your spending in check. An easy place to start is aiming to eat out less, while making meal planning a priority. Meal planning is an effective way to save money because you can tailor a grocery list based solely on the meals you plan to eat, eliminating both waste and impulse buying.

Buying store brands, taking advantage of discount days and coupon apps, and buying expensive items in bulk when they’re on sale can also help you trim your food bill.