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Cryptocurrency
A close up of the Strategy logo on a smartphone with candlestick investing patterns in the background. PJ McDonnell/Shutterstock

‘Who in their right mind would rather buy crypto right now?’ As prices plunge after Strategy sell, experts say the bitcoin bear may roar for a while

Bitcoin just suffered one of its sharpest selloffs in months.

After spending much of the past year trading comfortably above six figures and reaching a peak above $126,000 in October, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appeared to have settled into a period of relative stability. That changed abruptly last week, when a wave of risk-off sentiment and broader market turmoil sent bitcoin tumbling below $60,000 — its lowest level since October 2024.

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By the end of the week, bitcoin had lost roughly 17% of its value and was trading more than 50% below its all-time high.

While stocks tied to artificial intelligence and semiconductors have continued to soar, some analysts believe speculative money that might once have flowed into crypto is finding more attractive opportunities elsewhere. As Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg put it, “Who in their right mind would rather buy crypto right now when you could close your eyes, buy a semiconductor stock and [have] 2-3x your investment in weeks?”

The sudden reversal has left investors grappling with a question that seemed almost unthinkable just a few months ago: What is the bull case for bitcoin right now?

What triggered the Bitcoin drop

The crash started when Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Michael Saylor’s company and one of bitcoin’s most vocal corporate backers, disclosed that it had sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31.

Bitcoin’s average price hovered around $77,135, and was bringing in roughly $2.5 million. The proceeds weren’t for some big strategic pivot either; they were used to help fund dividend payments on its high-yield perpetual preferred stock.

On paper, the sale is almost meaningless. Strategy still holds 843,700 BTC, worth around $61 billion, at the time of disclosure. The 32 coins account for just 0.0038% of its total position. But bitcoin doesn’t run on math alone. What sustains Bitcoin largely involves fundamentals and narrative that are strong enough to spike FUD (fear, uncertainties and doubts) in the minds of investors. And for years, the narrative was that Saylor never sells. The moment he did, the market treated it like a five-alarm fire.

Bitcoin fell 3.1% on the news, and Strategy’s stock (MSTR) dropped more than 5.85% by June 1 and went on to lose about 28% over the week. About $1.6 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the cascade that followed.

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TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza pushed back on the narrative, arguing that “the transaction was economically immaterial and does not alter the core accumulation thesis,” but others drew a different conclusion.

Risk Dimensions CIO, Mark Connors, told CoinDesk that the move sends a clear signal: Strategy is willing to sell bitcoin if needed to support shareholders and creditors. In his view, the company is prioritizing the stability (or at least the perception) of its capital structure over maintaining its long-standing “never sell” stance. “Saylor and Strategy have prioritized the health and perception of health of the MSTR capital structure over being a diamond-handed OG,” he said.

Saylor himself blamed the drop on “capital rotation” into AI infrastructure, not any issue with bitcoin.

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Bitcoin’s two big stories aren’t working anymore

Even before this week, bitcoin was already struggling with two other issues; its two defining narratives were starting to break down.

For years, Bitcoin sold itself in two ways. First, as “digital gold” — a safe-haven asset that should benefit from geopolitical stress. Second, as a high-beta tech trade that moves with, and often amplifies, the Nasdaq. Each story appealed to a different crowd.

Right now, neither one is really holding up.

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When the US-Israel-Iran war broke out in February, Bitcoin actually passed that test. It jumped more than 10% in days while gold fell, trading above $70,000 for the first time in months. That looked like proof it worked, but as the conflict dragged on, stocks climbed to new highs, and Bitcoin stopped keeping pace. The safe-haven premium faded, and by June the digital gold story just didn’t work.

The tech-stock story isn’t holding up either. “We saw the 30-day Pearson correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reach a near-perfect positive correlation as recently as a month ago, but that has collapsed over the last several weeks,” Rajiv Sawhney, head of international portfolio management at Wave Digital Assets, told CNBC. Stocks are climbing while bitcoin falls, and the correlation that underpinned the tech narrative is gone.

The ETF picture makes it worse

Bitcoin ETFs were supposed to bring steady institutional demand (the kind of calm, long-term money that wouldn’t rattle the market). Last week tested that assumption.

Last Wednesday, bitcoin ETFs logged their 13th straight day of net outflows — the longest streak on record, according to CNBC’S report of SoSoValue. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have lost $4.4 billion since mid‑May. Last Thursday saw a $3 million inflow, which isn’t a recovery when you compare it with billions lost.

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Where prices could go from here

On June 4, bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300 — a long-term support level that CoinDesk notes has been reached in almost every previous bear market. On the same day, another on-chain signal turned more negative: 10.5 million bitcoins were sitting at a loss, a bit more than the 9.8 million in profit. Historically, that kind of shift has often shown up near major bear market bottoms.

The bulls can point to those signals, but the bears have numbers of their own. Traders on prediction market Kalshi think there’s a 52% chance Bitcoin drops under $50,000 this year, but Bitcoin hasn’t traded with a “4” in front of its price since August 2024.

What this means for your money

Bitcoin has been here before, and it’s happened more than once. Every past bear market brought steep drops, and a lot of people say the asset was done, but it wasn’t. That doesn’t mean this time is different, but it also doesn’t mean calling bitcoin “broken” after a 17% week is a reliable read.

If you’re thinking about buying the dip, there is no obvious catalyst coming soon. These ETF outflows are real, and the fact that bitcoin is not moving with tech stocks anymore means it may not be trading the way it did just a month ago. The four-year cycle thesis only works if you stay in until the next cycle starts, and that takes a stomach for months of sideways or down action.

For most people, the honest rule is that you should only invest what you can afford to lose entirely — and don’t let a price drop (no matter how dramatic) decide when you buy.

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Godwin Oluponmile is a content specialist, SEO strategist and copywriter with seven years of expertise in finance, Web 3.0, B2B SaaS and technology. His work has been featured in publications such as Entrepreneur, HackerNoon, Blocktelegraph and Benzinga.

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