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Austin, Texas

According to Consumer Affairs’ poll, of the 50 most populated cities in the country, 33% of survey respondents believe Austin will be the first American market to crash.

The median home price on listings in Austin for October was $625,000 at $353 per square foot, up 11.6% year over year. But homes had been selling at nearly double that amount, with the median home sale price at $1.3 million at one point, with properties being picked up after a median 41 days on the market.

Prices have already softened since July, when the median home price was $650,000, or $364 per square foot.

If home values continue to decline to a full 15% from the summer’s numbers, that would lower the median listing price to $552,500 — a drop of $97,500.

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Atlanta

Atlanta takes the runner-up prize for the most likely city to see a housing crash, with 26% of respondents expecting its prices to fall shortly.

In October, the median listing home price in Atlanta was $426,900 at $263 per square foot, up 5.5% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $425,000, with homes selling after a median of 50 days on the market.

Atlanta is already seeing some modest declines in home values. July’s median listing home price in Atlanta was $435,000 at $267 per square foot. And homes were selling after a median of 40 days on the market — 10 days less than in October.

A full 15% drop in home prices from back in July would lower the median listing price to $369,750 — a drop of $65,250.

Bakersfield, California

Nearly a quarter of survey respondents are preparing for a tumble in housing prices in Bakersfield.

The median listing home price in Bakersfield in October was $384,500 at $217 per square foot, up 14.8% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $370,000, with homes selling after a median 59 days on the market.

While home values — or the value of the homes up for sale — have increased slightly from July, when the median listing home price was $380,000, their value per square foot has dropped from $221 per square foot. And homes are staying on the market longer, with the median number up 13 days from 46 back in July.

A 15% decline from July’s numbers would lower the median listing price to $323,000 — a drop of $57,000.

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Los Angeles

Coming in at number four, 23% of those polled believe Los Angeles is the city most likely to see housing prices drop.

As of October, the median listing home price in Los Angeles was $999,000 at $649 per square foot, up 5.2% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $915,000, with homes selling after a median 62 days on the market.

Prices have decreased slightly since July, down from a median listing price of $1 million at $654 per square foot. But the drops can especially be seen in the median sale prices in L.A. — down from $948,000 in the summer. And homes are lingering on the market for nearly two weeks longer, compared to 49 days in July.

If prices drop as much as 15% from the summer’s numbers, that would lower the median listing price to $850,000 — a decrease of $150,000.

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Tied for fourth place with Los Angeles, 23% of survey respondents predict housing prices in Albuquerque will see a significant correction.

As of October, the median listing home price in Albuquerque was $330,000 at $187 per square foot, up 10.6% year-over-year. And homes stayed on the market for a median 57 days.

Albuquerque’s real estate market has also softened a bit since July, when the median listing home price there was $332,500 at $188 per square foot. Homes were selling above listing prices at the time, with a median sale price of $358,892, with homes selling after a median 51 days on the market.

A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $282,625, a drop of $49,875.

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